Final Reminder of Sacramento Kings NBA Draft Lottery Odds

The waiting is finally almost over for the Sacramento Kings. After a disappointing 22-win season that quickly fell short of expectations, the Kings head into the draft lottery hoping luck is on their side as they aim to land their future star to build around.

Months ago, it felt like the draft lottery would be more of a formality to figure out which high selection the Kings would get. As the worst team in the league for much of the season, Sacramento seemed locked in to grabbing a top-five pick at worst.

But a strong finish to the season saw the Kings steadily climb up the standings as other teams passed them by (with losses of course). Sacramento refused to all-out tank, ended the season tied with the Utah Jazz for the fourth-worst record in the league, and finally lost the tiebreaker to fall to the fifth spot in the lottery.

The Kings' odds of landing a top-four pick, but many, if not all, of Sacramento is nervous for the worst-case scenario to happen and have the team fall back to the ninth spot in the draft. Here's the final reminder of where Sacramento stands entering the draft lottery.

Kings Lottery Odds

No. 1 pick: 11.5%
No. 2 pick: 11.4%
No. 3 pick: 11.2%
No. 4 pick: 11.0%
No. 5 pick: 2.0%
No. 6 pick: 18.2%
No. 7 pick: 25.5%
No. 8 pick: 8.5%
No. 9 pick: 0.6%

That means there is a higher probability the Kings fall to sixth or lower than climb to a top four pick. They have a combined 45.1% chance of landing a top-four selection and 52.8% to fall back, leaving just the 2% chance to stay where they are at fifth.

On the plus side, a fifth-slotted team has never won the draft lottery, but at the same time, the fifth-place team has never dropped all the way to ninth. It would be just the Kings' luck to fall all the way to the worst-case scenario, as bad luck (and bad decisions) have hurt this franchise for decades now.

But the draft lottery is a fun day of hope, at least until the results are in. Every team and fanbase goes into the day thinking and hoping they will walk away with the top selection. Until the names are called, all of Sacramento will be imagining what AJ Dybantsa would look like in a Kings uniform.

Feb 21, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) dunks during the first half against the Iowa State Cyclones at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

Lottery luck alone will not fix everything for the Kings, but it would accelerate a rebuild that has gotten off to an extremely slow start. With veterans still clogging up the rotation, Perry has a lot of work ahead of him this offseason.

For now, all we can do is wait. But thankfully, we don't have to wait much longer. One final lucky bounce of the ping pong balls could change the future of the franchise. Buckle up, everyone.

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