Kings NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Can Sacramento Get the No. 1 Pick?

The NBA Draft lottery is nearly here, and one of the most important dates in recent Sacramento Kings history is weighing heavily on the front office and fanbase. After a 60-loss season, the Kings are desperate for some luck. On May 10 at noon PT, the lottery ping pong balls could completely alter the direction of this Kings franchise.

Here is a more detailed look at the Kings' lottery odds, and most importantly, their chances at the No. 1 overall pick:

No. 1 pick: 11.5%

The main prize of the draft lottery: the first overall pick. The Kings have a 11.5% chance to jump four spots into the top position, which would give them their pick of the "elite" prospects, headlined by AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, and Darryn Peterson.

Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson looks to pass against BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa — Jan 24, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) looks to pass against BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) during the first half at Mizzou Arena. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Kings franchise has not landed the first overall pick since the 1989 NBA Draft, in which they selected Pervis Ellison. He went on to play just one season (34 games) for the Kings before getting traded in the 1990 offseason.

Of course, the Kings want the same lottery luck as they had in 1989, but with a much better outcome for their new franchise cornerstone.

Top 4 pick: 45.2%

While every team in the lottery is aiming for the first overall pick, simply landing in the top four is a win in itself. The Kings have a 45.2% chance to jump into the top four on Sunday.

READ: What the Kings Should Do at Every Possible Draft Position in 2026

By jumping into the top four, the Kings are guaranteed one of the consensus top-three prospects in Dybantsa, Boozer, and Peterson, or an incredible consolation prize in Caleb Wilson. There is certainly a drop-off after the top four prospects, so jumping in the lottery would be huge for the Kings.

The Kings have selected in the top four just twice in the last decade, picking Marvin Bagley III with the No. 2 pick in 2018 and Keegan Murray with the No. 4 pick in 2022.

No. 7 pick: 25.5%

Of course, the Kings want to jump up in the lottery, but their most likely scenario is actually dropping two spots to the seventh overall pick. The Kings have a 25.5% chance to drop to No. 7, a far-from-ideal scenario that is far too likely.

READ: Every Kings' Draft Lottery Outcome, Ranked by Probability

Landing at seventh would still likely mean the Kings could land one of the high-level guard prospects they should have their eyes on, with one of Kingston Flemings, Darius Acuff, and Keaton Wagler guaranteed to be on the board.

Feb 28, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) attempts a free throw against the Florida Gators during the first half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. | Travis Register-Imagn Images

Granted, that is still a fine consolation prize for dropping two spots, but after suffering one of their worst seasons in franchise history, it would feel like a slap in the face.

No. 9 pick: 0.6%

Fortunately, their worst-case scenario is very unlikely. While the Kings can drop to the No. 9 pick, they have just a 0.6% chance to do so. By falling to the ninth-overall pick, the Kings would be stuck with a lower-level prospect, with guys like Brayden Burries, Mikel Brown Jr., and Nate Ament projected in that range.

As the Kings look for a face-of-the-franchise prospect in this year's draft, they certainly need luck on their side in Sunday's lottery drawing.

Follow us on Facebook and X for the latest Sacramento Kings news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google