How Does NBA's Draft Lottery Change Impact the Kings' Rebuild?

The NBA is doing what it can to stop tanking. This season, especially, there seemed to be a tanking epidemic around the NBA, with a handful of teams "trying" to lose in order to secure better positioning in the lottery for a loaded 2026 draft class.

While the Sacramento Kings were not one of the teams trying to lose, even being cleared in an investigation by the league office, the NBA's new anti-tanking proposal could directly impact them.

The NBA is proposing a change to the lottery that would expand it to 16 teams with a "3-2-1" system, as ESPN's Shams Charania reports. The bottom three teams would be in a "regulation zone," receiving just two lottery balls each. The six teams that do not qualify for the postseason but are outside the bottom three (spots 4-10) would each get three lottery balls. The ninth and tenth seeds in each conference would get two lottery balls, while the losers of the 7-8 play-in matchups would get one.

The "3-2-1 lottery" proposal, named to represent the number of lottery balls per team, would expand the lottery from 14 to 16 teams. Teams that do not qualify for the playoffs or play-in tournament but stay out of the relegation zone (spots four through 10) would receive three… https://t.co/sIPAfYE5cL
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 28, 2026

The bottom three teams can drop as low as the 12th overall pick, while every other team can be slotted as low as the 16th pick. Of course, this system would have plenty of variability, and arguably, too much.

How does it impact the Kings' rebuild?

It is very clear that the Kings are in the early stages of a rebuild phase, and the best way to get back toward the top is through the draft. This summer, the Kings are guaranteed a top-nine pick with a 45.2% chance at a top-four selection. However, if this new lottery system were immediately in effect, they could drop all the way to the 16th pick.

Apr 3, 2026; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings head coach Doug Christie yells during the first quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Golden 1 Center. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Fortunately, the Kings will be in spots 4-10 more often than they will be in the "regulation zone." If the Kings could not finish in the bottom three of the league in this disastrous season, then I'm not sure when they will.

This allows the Kings to aim a bit higher during their rebuild than they might have been planning on, as even making the play-in tournament gives them the same chance at the first overall pick as finishing bottom-three does. Head coach Doug Christie and general manager Scott Perry did not seem prepared to fully commit to a tank, so this allows them to try to be competitive while still having a shot at a premium draft position.

Why this is a poor system

The Kings lost 60 games this season and finished fifth in the lottery standings. Five total teams (17% of the NBA) lost 60+ games this season. The best solution for these teams to turn things around is to land high draft picks and build through young talent, but this system will be flushing them out and only make it harder for bad teams to get better.

I like aspects of the NBA anti-tanking proposal, but I'm wary of flattened lottery odds, since flattening the odds in 2019 actually led to more tanking

An 8.1% chance at the No. 1 pick for the 11-seed seems like a strong incentive to do exactly what the Bulls did this year pic.twitter.com/PoVY1Hn5Md
— Lev Akabas (@LevAkabas) April 29, 2026

The Kings, who have made just one playoff appearance in the last two decades, need young talent. These small-market teams are not able to build through free agency; they need high draft picks.

Through ten runs of SportsCLT's Dylan Jackson's simulation of the new draft lottery format, the Kings landed a pick tenth or worse more often than jumping into the top five, with an average landing spot of 8.5. Who does this system help?

The draft is supposed to be a system for bad teams to acquire better talent and ultimately get better as a team. Right now, the bottom-three teams each have a 14.0% chance at the first-overall pick. Under the new format, they would have just a 5.4% chance. The NBA's obsession with trying to stop a select few teams from "tanking" is destroying the actual purpose of the draft.

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