Predicting the Western Conference Play-In Tournament

Of the teams currently occupying the No. 6 through No. 10 spots in the Western Conference standings, the Sacramento Kings’ remaining schedule is projected as the toughest. In fact, Sacramento projects to have the second-toughest remaining schedule in the NBA. However, based on current form I believe Kings fans should be feeling optimistic that Sacramento will be playing postseason basketball.

The schedule highlights (or lowlights, depending on your perspective) are two games against the NBA-leading Cavaliers, as well as games against the Thunder, Celtics, Nuggets, and Grizzlies.

Hardest Remaining NBA Schedules Mar. 12, 2025 | Tankathon

Thursday’s tilt at the Chase Center against the Warriors looms large as well, and a victory could very well set the tone for the Kings as they enter the challenging stretch. In between those high-profile games, the Kings must take care of business against teams with worse records. They will not be able to afford poor performances against the likes of the Wizards, Hornets, or Trail Blazers.

If the Kings split their remaining 18 games they will finish 42-40 for the season, which looks to be good enough to hang on to the No. 9 spot in the West and secure a spot in the Play-In Tournament. Stealing a game or two along the way - beating the Warriors on Thursday, or splitting the two games against the Cavaliers, for example - and winning the games they are “supposed” to win should be the focus for the rest of the season.

The Timberwolves’ remaining schedule is projected as the easiest of the teams in the 6-10 spots in the West, and the fourth-easiest overall. Tough tests remain in the form of two games against the Nuggets and two against the Pacers, as well as the Grizzlies, Bucks, and Pistons.

On the flip side, Minnesota has a plethora of games that they should win, including one against the 76ers and two games each against the Jazz, Pelicans, and Nets. A record of 11-5 in their remaining 16 games is reasonable given their recent form on both sides of the ball.

The Clippers check in just a few spots behind Sacramento with the fifth-toughest remaining schedule. Like the Kings, the Clippers will face Cleveland twice as well as Oklahoma City, Golden State, and Memphis. Games against Charlotte, New Orleans, Brooklyn, and the Spurs stand out as wins that the Clippers will need to pick up to remain in the picture.

LA should win around 11 of their remaining 17 games, although the loss to New Orleans on Tuesday night and their record of 4-6 in their last ten could be indications that the Clippers are trending downward.

Feb 21, 2025; Sacramento, California, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Jimmy Butler III (10) drives to the basket against Sacramento Kings forward DeMar DeRozan (10) during the fourth quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

The Warriors are absolutely red-hot since trading for Jimmy Butler and appear to be in no danger of slipping from the No. 6 spot in the West. In my eyes, the only question is if they can move up into the fifth spot before the season ends.

I’m currently projecting the Warriors to go 13-4 down the stretch and finish 50-32, which may be enough to overtake the Rockets in the standings. It is unlikely that Golden State will factor into the Play-In Tournament discussion moving forward, as they are firmly in a playoff position.

The Mavericks don’t appear to be much of a threat to overtake the Kings, especially given the season-ending ACL tear that Kyrie Irving suffered recently. Dallas may actually be in danger of falling out of the No. 10 spot as a projected record of 5-11 the rest of the way seems generous at the moment.

Kyrie Irving made both free throws after tearing his ACL and was then helped off the court. pic.twitter.com/2BBza6S9Xl
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 4, 2025

If the Suns can somehow put together a run in their remaining games, the Mavs will find themselves in the lottery instead of the Play-In Tournament.

With the Warriors separating themselves from the pack and the Mavericks in apparent freefall, the Kings look to be competing with the Clippers and Timberwolves for the No. 7, No. 8, and No. 9 spots in the Western Conference. I anticipate all three of these teams ending up in the Play-In Tournament at the end of the season.

The bad news is that Sacramento doesn’t seem to have much room to move up unless they catch fire down the stretch. The good news is that they are firmly in the mix barring a catastrophic finish.

Projected Final Standings

6. Golden State Warriors, 50-32

7. Minnesota Timberwolves, 48-34

8. Los Angeles Clippers, 46-36

9. Sacramento Kings, 42-40

10. Dallas Mavericks, 38-44

Projected Final Standings

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