Why the Kings' Recent Wins Are Starting to Become Problematic

Just a week ago, we were all convinced the worst possible scenario for the Sacramento Kings would be picking fifth overall in the 2026 NBA Draft. Then a win against the Indiana Pacers put the sixth pick in play. After an inexplicable win against the Los Angeles Clippers, the Kings now have the third spot in the NBA lottery and a real chance of picking as low as seventh in the draft.

The team sitting in last place has not received the first overall pick since the lottery odds were flattened in 2019, but there are legitimate reasons why the Kings need to stay where they are.

The Centerpiece

As you can see from the graph above from Tankathon, the Kings now have a 7% chance of picking seventh overall. If we’re going by NoCeilings’ most recent big board, the seventh overall player is Keaton Wagler out of Illinois, in front of him at sixth is Mikel Brown Jr., and right behind him is Darius Acuff Jr.

Wagler, Acuff Jr., and Brown Jr. are all fantastic players and could absolutely be great fits for the Kings; they just may not be the level of player that you build a championship contender around.

Trying to project upside for college players will always be a challenge because the game does change quite a bit when you move up to the top flight. With that said, most evaluators are very confident in the top four of this draft, and I have to agree.

Cam Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson have shown so much as freshmen in some of the biggest stages that college basketball has to offer, and scouts have been salivating at the idea of adding one of them to their team for next season.

Darryn Peterson off the bench against Kansas State:

27 PTS | 10-15 FG | 5 REB | 4 AST | 29 MINS pic.twitter.com/G4682Wefcf
— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) March 7, 2026

There may be a bit more contention at number five, but Houston point guard Kingston Flemings has mostly held that spot throughout the year, and I would be confident if the Kings ended up with him as a worst-case scenario. This isn’t about pure talent either; the issue with the Kings is that they don’t have any direction yet, and bringing in a player with real flaws that you have to account for in team building would add some unnecessary challenges for Sacramento. My sixth-ranked player is Wagler, and I would also be less worried if he were the pick, but after him, things start to get complicated.

A Realistic Look at the Roster

I wouldn’t argue with anyone who said that the Kings would need to move on from Domantas Sabonis if they draft Cam Boozer, but I think there’s a much better argument for watching that play out versus trying to make a defense work around Sabonis and a subpar point of attack defender.

I think of the three guards I mentioned and their pairing with Sabonis, like I do the Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns partnership. Both Brunson and Towns are some of the best at their position offensively, but even with their level of production, the New York Knicks need plus defenders around them if they want to contend for a championship.

Can Domantas Sabonis anchor a defense? @jj_redick and @LegsESPN take a look at the Western Conference playoff picture: https://t.co/rd2IJXWHYB pic.twitter.com/6gycq39Z5q
— TheOldManAndTheThree (@OldManAndThree) March 22, 2024

Currently, the Kings lack the defensive personnel to support a rookie who is a negative defender. The jump from college to the NBA is already hard enough for first-year players, but it’s even harder for players who don’t have the team around them to help them while they improve their shortcomings and adjust to the speed of the game.

Having a big man who can play in drop coverage really well makes things so much easier for a guard that isn’t the best point of attack defender, and unless the Kings are going to play Dylan Cardwell 48 minutes a game, that will be an issue for a lot of the guards in the draft.

Offensively, the Kings don’t have their star to run all their actions through either. Sabonis flashed a bit of that potential, but he’s a perfect example because he needs players around him who thrive in dribble handoff actions, can space the floor around him, and cover for his poor rim protection.

The Kings desperately need someone who can make something happen when everything breaks down offensively, as De’Aaron Fox did for years. There are so few players who can carry that load while still being at least average defenders, but the Kings need to find one, and the higher the draft pick, the better chance they have at finding exactly that.

This is awesome

Kelvin Sampson has been extremely vocal about Kingston Flemings’ defensive struggles early on at Houston

This is why you run toward the hard

Kingston Flemings is going to be a top 5 pick and ready from day 1 to compete in the NBA

pic.twitter.com/luepoWNVN0
— Hoop Herald (@TheHoopHerald) February 5, 2026

Let’s Play Devil’s Advocate for a Second

I don’t think it’s fair to write off players like Acuff Jr. and Brown Jr. simply because there are real question marks on the defensive end, so let’s look at how the Kings could still build a contender around them. I’ll use the Knicks and the Golden State Warriors as an example with Steph Curry and the aforementioned Brunson. If you haven’t noticed already, my point is that if you’re a limited defender as a lead guard, you better be one of the best offensive players in the league.

It doesn’t stop with just being an elite offensive player either. Both Brunson and Curry have benefited from having some incredible defenders around them. Keegan Murray is great defensively, but even if you think he’s on par with OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, there’s only one of him.

If the Kings end up picking seventh and one of those players is the best available, I’m not saying they should pass on them, but these team-building challenges are exactly why these wins at the end of the season could come back to haunt them.