Analyzing Knicks’ Offseason Outlook With Descending Cap

The New York Knicks are 48-26 and have only eight games remaining before the postseason journey begins. There is still much basketball to be played. But it’s never too early to talk about the off-season, which just got a little bit more tricky.

Earlier in the week, Shams Charania of ESPN reported that the league is projecting a $165 million salary cap for 2026-27, lower than previous outlooks due to a reduction in local media revenue. The numbers include a floor of $149 million, luxury tax threshold of $201 million, first tax apron line at $209 million and the vaunted second apron $222 million. All of which are $1 million dollar increases.

That second apron number dropping, even if just a few dollars, could have significant roster building implications for the Knicks, who will have a busy off-season ahead no matter what happens in the weeks ahead. Thanks to Brock Aller managing the cap in the second apron era, the Knicks have been one of the NBA’s most strategic front offices.

There's No Running From The Second Apron Monster Anymore

Last season, the Knicks finished a measly $53,000 dollars below the threshold. Due in large part to Pacome Dadiet, who was selected 25th overall in the 2024 draft, taking 80 percent of the rookie scale and saving the Knicks $904,000.

Prior to the Knicks deadline activity, they were just $148,359 below the second apron. This came without a full roster of 15 players, too. The most recent move of signing Jeremy Sochan added roughly $820,000 to the books, leaving New York just $369,736 below the second apron, per Spotrac.

Leon Rose has roughly $191 million commited to the starting five for next year. Add another $6 million for Miles McBride and Tyler Kolek. That leaves about $25 million to spread around for rookies and minimum veterans to fill the league-mandated 14 roster spots. And for most importantly trying to retain Mitchell Robinson, Landry Shamet and Mohammed Diawara.

Diawara Has Impressed — Feb 27, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; New York Knicks forward Mohamed Diawara (51) shoots against Milwaukee Bucks forward Ousmane Dieng (21) in the second half at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Robinson is currently in the final year of a four-year, $60 million contract which descalated down to the $12.9 million he's making now. The eighth-year pro is currently extension-eligible through June 30 for up to four years, $87 million. If he stays healthy and continues to be the wrecking ball he's been, rival teams could make him an offer that makes the Knicks uncomfortable amid a potential Giannis pursuit.

There’s Shamet, who missed 25 games earlier in the year after banging his shoulder and is on the shelf now dealing with a troublesome knee. The 29-year-old sharpshooter has been one of the better bargains in the league on a veteran’s minimum contract. He’s knocking down his 3’s at a 38.8% clip and has carved himself out a sizeable bench role. The Knicks will have his early bird rights when he hits unrestricted free agency.

Many fans are worrying that Diawara has looked so intriguing in limited action that he may get poached in restricted free-agency by a team with cap space. Could say Brooklyn, who have money to spend and own a chunk of the Knicks future, dare Rose to match a lucrative offer sheet?

Diawara's Free-Agency Gets More And More Interesting

Thanks to the Gilbert Arenas rule, which was implemented in 2005 to make it easier for teams to resign restricted free agent that weren't first-round picks, rival teams can’t offer Diawara a starting salary higher than the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception ($15.1 million next season), per Dan Favale of Fansided. This isn’t an Isaiah Hartenstein situation where the Knicks can't match an offer.

The Knicks hold a $2,983,680 team option on Dadiet, who has shown promise in recent weeks with Westchester, the Knicks G-League affiliate. Meanwhile, Jose Alvarado has a $4,500,000 player option. Picking that up will give the team depth as they try to fill out the roster and flexibility below the second apron hard cap they’d be subjected to if they do work out a deal for Giannis Anteokounmpo in the off-season.

The plan since the Bridges trade was seemingly to duck the second apron these two years and then go over with money coming off the books after 2027 and 2028. There are hurdles that come with being a team over the second apron. But the Knicks wouldn't be wrong for prioritizing winning and facing head on the apron difficulties that lie ahead.

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