Why the Knicks Should Now Focus On The 4-Seed In The East

The New York Knicks hung with the reigning champs last night, but the Oklahoma City Thunder closed the game on a 14-5 run and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went into MVP mode in the closing minutes.

With the 111-100 loss combined with the Celtics winning in Charlotte, the Knicks lost a full game on Boston for the No. 2 seed. The game was essentially an elimination game for Mike Brown's team as far as the catching the Celtics is concerned.

The Knicks (48-27) are now trailing Boston (50-24) by 2.5 games, including a 3-game difference in the loss column. New York and Boston meet at Madison Square Garden on April 9 in the third to last game of the season. The Knicks have seven games left while Boston has eight.

The Knicks Hopes Of Catching Boston Are All But Over

According to Sean Grande, the radio voice of the Celtics, basketball reference gave Boston a 77.8% chance of securing the 2-seed prior to Sunday’s outcomes. That number has jumped into the mid-80’s. It now appears that Boston can lose that game in New York and still secure the number two spot.

Meanwhile, the Knicks sit just 1.5 games ahead of the No. 4 seeded Cavaliers. But is it more important to hold onto the third seed, or more advantageous to drop to the fourth slot? Cleveland has a far easier schedule to conclude their season, but I'd imagine they'd also prefer a potential Detroit matchup in round two over Boston.

The Knicks lost all three of their games against Detroit this year by a combined 84 points with a 28-point average margin of defeat. Even though the numbers say otherwise and fans may not want to admit it, the easier playoff road might be playing a Detroit team that is currently without Cade Cunningham and languishing to the finish line in round two instead of a Boston team out for revenge.

Feb 19, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks forward Og Anunoby (8) drives to the basket against Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (2) during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Additionally, you're more likely to get a favorable 1st round opponent out of the four seed. Currently, Toronto - who would be an ideal opening round matchup for the Knicks- is in the five slot, just a half game ahead of Atlanta. The Sixers are lurking in seventh place, just a game behind the Raptors. They recently welcomed Joel Embiid and Paul George back to the lineup. But five of their eight remaining games come against teams above .500 and they're more likely to finish in the six or seven slot.

History, however, is not on the side of team’s coming into the postseason as a fourth seed or worse. Only one team since 1984 seeded that high has won it all - the sixth-seeded 1994-95 Rockets, who are the lowest-seeded team to win the NBA Finals.

Throughout league history, the cream usually rises to the top. In fact, out of 79 NBA champions, 69 of them have been a top 2-seed. Just eight No. 3 seeds have won the Finals, along with one No. 4 seed. A team seeded No. 5, 7 or 8 has never won a championship.

History Is Not On The Side Of Four-Seeds

The only No. 4 seed to take down a title in NBA history was the 1968-69 Celtics, who defeated the Los Angeles Lakers in a 7-game series. The only other four-seeds to have reached the Finals are the 1978 Sonics, 2006 Mavericks, 2010 Celtics and 2018 Cavs.

We are witnessing the most unpredictable Eastern Conference playoff bracket in a long while. But it might be predictably better for the Knicks to head into the dance as the fourth seed.

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