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Why the Magic should keep Paolo and Franz, Not Trade for Giannis

Orlando is already built to contend for the foreseeable future; what's the rush?
Apr 25, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner (22) reacts to a shot by forward Paolo Banchero (5) against the Detroit Pistons in the fourth quarter during game three of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Apr 25, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner (22) reacts to a shot by forward Paolo Banchero (5) against the Detroit Pistons in the fourth quarter during game three of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

On paper and in (limited) practice, the Orlando Magic already have a winning core for today and tomorrow; why shorten the window?

When they can stay on the court, this Magic squad already has a winning formula; why change it?

When healthy, this Orlando group has proven to be a good team; why fix what ain’t broken?

Despite there being rumors of interest linking Orlando to Antetokounmpo last summer after acquiring Desmond Bane, and despite the countless close connections Giannis has to this Magic staff, there's really only a few reasons to consider breaking up an up-and-coming core as exciting as Orlando's for a star one could argue is technically past the peak of his prime – pressure, expectations, or you just flat out think the other guy is a better fit to help the team win going forward.

Why the Magic need to prioritize longterm team building success

Franz and Paolo celebrate
Apr 25, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner (22) reacts to a shot by forward Paolo Banchero (5) against the Detroit Pistons in the fourth quarter during game three of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Pressure and expectations always factor into blockbuster deals, between owners, agents, players, fans, and negotiation tactics from all sides, especially once a team starts considering the thought of giving up on a young homegrown star for a proven commodity superstar.

So, if Orlando's front office is feeling that pressure, despite Orlando Magic President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman saying otherwise, then the willingness and need to improve quickly suddenly could take priority over longterm teambuilding success, which should never happen.

The Magic know this too well – forcing Rob Hennigan's hand in 2016 to make a playoff run resulted in him overpaying for the big-hit prospect he personally scouted in Serge Ibaka, sending out Orlando's best young prospect on the roster in Victor Oladipo, a similary impactful rotation big Ersan Ilyasova, and the 11th pick that became Domantas Sabonis on draft night.

Now, Orlando's deciding factors in this equation in 2026 are different, but have similar overlying themes. This isn't Oladipo for Ibaka, despite some dramatic similarities.

Giannis is the better more proven two-way talent and winning player today than either of Orlando's big wing stars and far better than Ibaka at the time, he's finished 4th in MVP voting for 7 straight seasons and is one of the greatest to ever play the sport still in the late prime of his career.
Antetokounmpo may shorten the theoretical window every Magic fan dreams about one day happening, but on the other hand, he would instantly crystallize an actionable window to contend overnight. Like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar before him, there's a chance Antetokounmpo's greatness could extend longer late into his career by pairing him with the likes of a young costar in one of Franz or Paolo, let alone Bane, Wendell, and one of Suggs or Black, assuming four of them remain after a trade.

If there are demands from above to win now, no matter the cost, to build around a certain star over another, then there’s little the front office can do but execute those wishes; while fans think doing what's best for the team long term is their job, and while that is their ultimate duty and goal, that's not always the only factor at play in reality.

People fight for jobs, save relationships, help friends, just like any other industry; and, more importantly, when it comes to defining the team's ultimate goals and priorities, what is best for the team long-term is not always what’s best for the team next season.

If you’re trading a young All Star, which for Orlando would be a potential All-NBA big wing in Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner, then you’re basically betting that the one you trade will not eclipse Giannis’s impact anytime in the near future; you’d be subtly caving to those demands to contend next season, even if it cost future contending windows, aka more realistic cracks at the bat at winning it all.

Every front office has a duty to the team to chase long-term success, to build a long-term sustainable contender that has a chance of winning an NBA championship every time they make the playoffs, creating teams that aim to do those things every season, with the organization finding ways to create and extend that window.

One could argue the window and timeline for this Magic team is just getting started, that the last five years of building winning habits defensively and gaining playoff experience under Jamahl Mosley will set up this team that's still Top-5 youngest in the league to finally not only win a playoff series, but begin to make deeper and deeper playoff runs every season, especially when you add in the big unknown factor of a new coach in Sean Sweeney looking to unlock this group on both ends.

The defense is still the calling card of this group, proving in recent seasons and spurs this year that it can compete with any team as former Top-2 overall and Top-2 ranked defense at forcing turnovers while competing in four factors on a night-to-night basis; this group just needs to rekindle that hustling spark, and more importantly, dodge the injury bug for once to give Sweeney the time and opportunity to build his system that wasn't afforded to Mosley.

Offensive cohesion is the primary need for this team, a system that is more than the sum of its parts, a focus on lineup balance that utilizes what Banchero and Wagner do best getting downhill in the paint, posting up mismatches, spraying out passes to the others to get the drive-and-kick machine moving.

When this team is healthy enough where Desmond Bane is the first priority being hunted on open catch-and-shoot threes, this system starts to rock, followed by high-volume 3pt launchers in Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black, who both have flashed incredible developments in ball skills on and off the ball as 3pt-spacing connectors who can run a little offense and create a little off the dribble. The looks everyone gets are a lot better when the big wing stars or 3pt shooters are creating the advantage for the rest of the team to feed off and attack a scrambling defense.

If you decided to write off the last two seasons 'from hell' to bad injury luck and growing pains, still believing in the positive indicators of the starting lineup's elite net rating and scalable lineup versatility of the team's top rotation, you can quickly see how this Magic team just needs to get right to be its best self, especially with good young prospects on the horizon looking to further crack the rotation in Tristan da Silva, Jase Richardson, Noah Penda.

Combine the last five years of experience, along with the trajectory and development of this young team getting another year under its belt as the league gets one year older around them, there’s already a proven recipe for success here in Orlando between the perimeter led elite defense led by multiple star downhill scorers and floor-spacing connectors.

The Magic are a paint-and-spray fire hydrant waiting to be untapped.

Any remote cohesion to maximize efficiency on offense from the new coaching staff will immediately take this team closer to where expectations have stayed all along, competing in the East playoffs over night while being roughly as good, versatile, and competitive defensively as any team in the league, with plenty of capable shooters and creators that can be further unlocked in the right role.

Between Suggs-Bane-Franz-Paolo-Wendell-Black-da Silva and this roster, the depth of talent to build a good offense is here. If the ideal balance can be found to form not only an average offense, but a Top-12 offense out of the big wing downhill forces down low and the 3pt spacing from the guards, an elite offense combined with the proven elite defense provide two key ingredients to any contender.

Now, many of these goals stated above could theoretically achieved with Giannis in the short term, which makes the decision that much more interesting.

However, there's a real argument that the most dynamic timeline only occurs with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner together, staying put in Orlando.

Banchero is the best shooter of the three and already arguably the most versatile scorer and most versatile passer out of his scoring, already; Paolo has a case as the best bucket-getter, floor-stretching shooter, individual shot creator and most versatile advantage creating passer for his team.

Wagner already has the incredibly high high two-way impact and will likely eclipse Giannis sooner in that aspect, already proven to be one of the premier defensive big wing anchors and pick-and-roll and postup scoring creators in the league.

While Giannis is still elite in many areas, and while he would likely improve Orlando's chances to contend quicker, and arguably be more in tune with the intense two-way style of play this team wants to find, it's no guarantee how long that tradeoff of higher impact will last, and there's a chance it's not even more dynamic than Orlando's current trajectory.

One would need to feel a lot pressure to 'win now' to give up a potential superstar ten years younger.

Giannis is so great now, and could still be so great for so long, and has so many real relationships with the staff of this Magic team, that the appeal to turn the page to an overnight contender is understandably and undeniably intriguing for this team, let alone any team; it's Giannis!

But, there's three key logical stepping stones, to me – if you believe this Magic team is a contender when healthy, and if you still believe in Banchero & Wagner as your potential superstar offensive hubs, and if you believe Paolo & Franz will both eclipse Giannis in overall impact in the reasonably near future, than you should be betting all your chips on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

If Orlando's decision makers don't agree with those things, or if they simply think Giannis is a better fit for this team to achieve its goals, then the conversation has real legs.

The Orlando Magic are at a real crossroads moment, an inflection point that will define this entire era, with a compelling argument on both sides. With the benefit of hindsight, this deal could look anything from genius to insane within a year or two. It’s truly a dividing line in the sand for this Magic era — two very clear paths lie ahead, two reasonable options to continue going forward where the choice is seemingly just about which star(s) you want to build around.

This could wind up being the most important decision of this Magic front office regime; will Orlando take the exit ramp hoping to find immediate contention with Giannis, or ride out this Paolo & Franz era of a road trip down the Highway of Potential hoping to find something even better down the road?

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Published | Modified
Ryan Kaminski
RYAN KAMINSKI

Ryan is a basketball scout data analyst who has been covering the Orlando Magic, NBA, and NBA Draft with a focus on roster building strategy, data analytics, film breakdowns, and player development since 2017. He is credentialed media for the Orlando Magic along with top high schools in Central Florida where he scouts talent in marquee matchups at Montverde Academy, IMG Academy, Oak Ridge, and the NBPA Top-100 Camp. He generates basketball data visualizations, formerly with The BBall Index. He has two B.A.s from Florida State University in Business Management and Business Marketing. Twitter/YouTube/Substack: @BeyondTheRK