NBA Offseason Winners and Losers: LeBron James’s Impact, What to Make of Miami

With The Decision 4.0 in the books, it’s time to take stock of the NBA offseason. Sure, there are some remaining roster moves out there. Some big ones. Detroit has to come to terms with All-NBA center Jalen Duren, Denver has to figure out if it can afford Peyton Watson and someone has to sign Jonathan Kuminga. Still, with the big pieces off the board and cap space (mostly) dried up, free agency is in its final days.

So who moved the needle? Did anyone push themselves into title contention? Did anyone fall out of it? Here’s a look at some of our offseason winners, losers … and maybe one that fell somewhere in between.

Winner: Philadelphia 76ers

Bottom line: The 76ers turned Paul George and a couple of first-round picks into Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. Maybe you don’t like Brown. Maybe you think James is an imperfect fit. But the 76ers turned Paul George and a couple of first-round picks into Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. Throw in the free agent signing of Dean Wade and you can start sketching the Bob Myers/Mike Gansey front office on that Executive of the Year plaque.

About that fit: In his series of X posts—can someone upgrade Bron to premium?—James used the word sacrifice. He was referring to himself, but it’s everyone. The Sixers have four players who ranked in the top 50 in usage rate last season. They have two ex-MVPs (James, Joel Embiid), a recent candidate for MVP (Brown) and a potential MVP (Tyrese Maxey). James operating as a point forward should free up a few more shots, but everyone in a Philadelphia uniform needs to be prepared to sacrifice for this to work.

Loser: Boston Celtics

Weeks removed from shipping Brown to Philadelphia and it still doesn’t sit right. Why would Boston settle for a deal headlined by George’s toxic contract and a couple of first-round picks? Why were the Celtics so eager to execute a deal quickly? That the 76ers were able to sign James—a pickup that would not have happened had Boston not gifted Brown to Philly—is the acid reflux of that a stomach-churning transaction.

Listen: Boston won’t fall off a cliff. Tatum is more than capable of playing the role Brown played on a 56-win team, Joe Mazzulla is going to love the rebound-gobbling Mitchell Robinson and there will be further organic growth from Baylor Scheierman, Hugo González and Jordan Walsh. When George is on the floor he remains a capable jump shooter and defender. It’s still a playoff team, one that should compete for a top-four seed. But a title contender? Those chances went down I-95 with Brown.

Winner: Los Angeles Lakers

Did they lose James? Yes. Did they assemble an imperfect roster? Probably. Did they overpay for Walker Kessler? Maybe. But for the first time since acquiring Luka Dončić the Lakers have a clear direction. It’s Dončić’s team, Austin Reaves is his wingman and there’s enough firepower on the wings (Quentin Grimes, Jake LaRavia, Collin Sexton, Sandro Mamukelashvili) to suggest L.A. will have a frighteningly effective offense next season.

Can the Lakers be more than that? That depends on Kessler. The Lakers mortgaged the future to acquire Kessler from Utah, trading two picks and two swaps that will give the Jazz control of their first-round picks through the early 2030s. There’s no denying Kessler’s talent: He’s a reliable double-double machine, an elite offensive rebounder and a budding shot blocker. No big in the history of bigs has gotten worse playing alongside Dončić, so it’s safe to assume those numbers will improve. But can Kessler anchor a defense desperately in need of rim protection? That may be the difference between a playoff team and one capable of making an NBA Finals run.

Loser: Golden State Warriors

Add James to the list of players the Warriors almost got, along with Lauri Markkanen and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Many read Draymond Green’s decision to opt out of his contract as a sign that James was headed to the Bay. Instead, James is in Philadelphia, Green is back on an identical deal and Golden State appears poised to spend another year clawing its way to a play-in spot.

It’s a bummer, really. Stephen Curry is still magnificent, Green remains a premier defender and Steve Kerr’s decision to return to see this dynasty through kept a top-10 coach on the Warriors’ bench. But it’s not enough, not with an aging roster, not in an ultra-competitive Western Conference. Maybe James would not have been enough to push Golden State back to the championship level. But without him, that level feels a long way off.

Winner: Minnesota Timberwolves

No one’s writing that LaMelo Ball is the missing piece to a championship puzzle. But the Timberwolves had to do something, didn’t they? Minnesota has sunk below 50 wins the last two seasons and was bounced out of the playoffs by San Antonio in six games last spring. With Anthony Edwards approaching extension eligibility, the Wolves needed to be bold. Ball is bold.

And he can help. Ball is coming off one of his best seasons. He’s a 20-ish ppg scorer who shot 37% from three. He will take playmaking responsibilities off of Edwards while creating the kind of catch-and-shoot opportunities Edwards thrives in. Ball will need to be load managed—among the reasons he played in 72 games was because the Hornets limited him to 28 minutes per game—and if Rudy Gobert goes down, Minnesota’s wafer-thin frontcourt will be in trouble. Still, I like the roll of the dice.

Loser: L.A. Clippers

As we approach the one-year anniversary of the NBA’s investigation into alleged cap circumvention by the Clippers, the fallout continues to haunt them. What appeared to be a good deal for L.A.—flipping Kawhi Leonard for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and a package of first-round picks, seconds and a swap—is in limbo until the investigation is concluded. And while NBA commissioner Adam Silver struck an optimistic tone about wrapping it up this summer, well, we’re nearly into August and there is no end in sight.

That leaves Los Angeles in a tight spot. Not only can it not officially onboard Ingram and Dick, but the paralyzed deal complicates the pursuit of other free agents (Watson, most notably) and has forced the Clippers to contemplate the possibility that Leonard will still be on the roster come training camp. L.A. has made a nice pivot in recent months, flipping James Harden for Darius Garland, gambling (correctly) that Ivica Zubac would deliver a high lottery pick. They are ready to turn the page on the Leonard era. If only they can be rid of Leonard.

The Kawhi Leonard trade is in limbo while the cap circumvention investigation unfolds, leaving both the Clippers and Raptors in tough spots. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Winner: Charlotte Hornets

I’ll admit, I was surprised that after a 44-win, near-playoff season the Hornets elected to take a wrecking ball to the roster, peeling off Ball and Miles Bridges, both coming off strong seasons. But the emergence of Kon Knueppel and the ongoing development of Brandon Miller freed the Buzz to do a mid-rebuild reset without fans storming the executive offices with pitchforks.

Why? Because Charlotte sold high on both Ball and Bridges. It extracted Naz Reid, a first and three swaps from Charlotte for Ball. It got Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale and a first-rounder for Bridges. That’s a handful of usable, movable players and a cache of picks for two players, two very good players, who Charlotte may not have seen a long-term future with. In the NBA, it’s often better to be proactive than reactive. The Hornets are counting on that.

Loser: Cleveland Cavaliers*

Throwing the asterisk on the Cavs until we see if they can land one of their reported remaining free agent targets (Watson, Kuminga), and Cleveland did get Donovan Mitchell’s name on a contract extension, which keeps them at least relevant through the end of the decade.

Still, whiffing on James stings, as does losing Wade, a reliable wing defender who started 14 games in the playoffs. The Cavs still have a solid roster but Harden is a year older and Evan Mobley leveled off (again) last season. I’ll happily reconsider this designation should Cleveland land a versatile wing like Watson or Kuminga. For now, this has been a forgettable summer.

Winner: Dallas Mavericks*

I don’t know if Zaccharie Risacher can play, nor do I know if Dusty May can coach, at least on the NBA level. But after a couple of years of Titanic-like transactions the Mavs have made some respectable ones.

May has been on the NBA’s radar for a few years. Initially, May’s preference was to remain at Michigan, a source close to him tells Sports Illustrated, but the combination of Dallas’s roster and the bag it was willing to pay him to develop it was too enticing. Now, the Mavs have a 49-year-old coaching phenom to develop the 19-year-old phenom (Cooper Flagg) they are building around.

Risacher is … I don’t know what Risacher is. He stumbled in his second season and was a disaster in the playoffs. Still, he’s a smooth, 6'8" wing just two years removed from the Hawks thinking enough of him to draft him No. 1 overall. And Dallas got him for nothing (sorry, Ryan Nembhard). Now the Mavericks have two of the last three top overall picks to anchor the frontcourt. Not a bad place to start.

Loser: Portland Trail Blazers

The team is in danger of relocating. Offseasons don’t get worse than that.

Winner and Loser: Miami Heat

Honestly, I struggle with how to characterize the Heat’s offseason. They landed Antetokounmpo, the big fish Pat Riley has been hunting for more than a decade. But they paid a king’s ransom for it, and eventually will tie themselves long term to a soon-to-be 32-year-old with a recent history of serious leg injuries.

The bigger issue is the team around him. Miami missed on James, lost Norman Powell and has a roster that by Riley’s admission needs another playmaker and by everyone else’s has a serious lack of shooting, one that is unlikely to be solved by Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan or anyone else on the Heat’s shopping list. Could Miami evolve into a grind-it-out, defensive-minded unit? Perhaps, and they have the roster for it. Can that kind of team win in 2026? That may be more difficult, which is why the Heat land in both categories.

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