3 Predictions for the Nuggets in NBA Cup Opener vs. Suns

The Denver Nuggets are about to play their fifth game of the 2026-27 season after starting 2-2, and they are playing with higher stakes against the Phoenix Suns on Friday night. Not only do the Nuggets need a big road win to build some momentum after a rough start to the season, but it is also an NBA Cup matchup.

As a reminder, since it is the opening night of the 2026 NBA Cup, the Nuggets are in a group with the Suns, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, and Utah Jazz. After every Group Play game is played, the top team in each group will advance to the Knockout Rounds, with one "wild card team" from each conference.

Since the Nuggets play just four Group Play games, all of them matter significantly. Each player on the winning NBA Cup team will receive just above $600,000, so every team obviously wants to win. Denver should be treating this as a must-win game. Even if they do not care about the NBA Cup, it is great practice for end-of-season scenarios. Here are a few of my predictions for the Nuggets on Friday night:

Nuggets score 130+ points

Oct 26, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) reacts in the second quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Nuggets had the NBA's top-ranked offense last season, but they have been off to a slow start. Outside of a 141-point outing in their overtime win over the New Orleans Pelicans, the Nuggets have not scored more than 114 points in a game this season. Of course, it is a small sample size, but they need to turn things around.

The Nuggets' defense is not good enough to not have one of the league's best offenses. Going against the Suns team that has given up 122 or more points in every game this season, the Nuggets have no reason not to find their rhythm offensively.

This is the perfect spot for Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic to get some offensive work in. Either of them, or both, could go for 35 or more points on Friday night, and the Nuggets might need them to.

Both teams catch fire from deep

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker against Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray — Mar 24, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) against Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Both the Suns (31.9%) and Nuggets (32.8%) have been in the bottom half in the NBA so far in three-point percentage. On Friday night, we should see both of them get some good looks and knock down their deep shots at a higher clip.

Neither the Nuggets nor the Suns are strong defensive teams. This could be a bit of a shootout, and a lot of the points could come from beyond the arc. The Suns' opponents are shooting 40.7% from deep this season, the highest mark in the league. Denver's opponents have been a bit colder, shooting just 32.9% from three, but this has the makings of a shootout.

Obviously, we hope the Nuggets' defense can step up for the second straight game, but after a slow start to their season, the Suns are likely eager to have a big offensive night.

Nuggets narrowly win on the road

Mar 24, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) reacts against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Most importantly, it is easy to see the Nuggets picking up a much-needed road win in Phoenix on Friday, but likely not by much. Even though the Suns have been far from perfect through their first three games, especially on the defensive end, they will likely do enough to keep up with Denver.

This could end up being a high-scoring affair, like 132-125 in the Nuggets' favor, as neither team will make it easy for the other. Really, though, a tight game would not be the worst-case scenario for the Nuggets. This should have a playoff-like atmosphere, so treating it as such is ideal for the Nuggets, especially as they experiment more with late-game situations.

All that really matters is the Nuggets pulling out a win against this Suns team, which they have obvious advantages against, but we will see how it really shakes out.

The Nuggets and Suns are set to tip off at 8:00 p.m. MT in Phoenix.

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