Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Cameron Boozer, Sabonis, Grizzlies vs. Blazers)

It wouldn’t be an early-season edition of Peter’s Points without a Cameron Boozer prop, and the No. 3 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft highlights Thursday’s NBA action ahead of the first NBA Cup Group Play matchups on Friday.

After 12 terrific NBA games on Wednesday that saw the Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat pick up upset wins, there are just six teams in action on Thursday night:

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers

The Grizzlies and Blazers have both yet to lose a game this season while Cleveland and Atlanta jockey for playoff positioning in an Eastern Conference that is going to be tough for any contender to navigate this season. Before I dive into today’s picks, here’s my favorite thing from Wednesday and one game to watch on Thursday night.

Dew’s Review: How great is it when we get a Steph Curry night? The former league MVP was on another level on Wednesday, scoring 44 points to lead the Golden State Warriors to an upset win over the Anthony Edwards-less Minnesota Timberwolves. Golden State is now 2-3 this season, and Curry remains one of the most exciting individual players to watch on a nightly basis, especially when he has it going from beyond the arc. One note on Golden State: Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg (26 points, nine rebounds on Wednesday) has been awesome to start the season, and he’s now +280 (second) in the odds to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award.

Peter’s Point: There are a couple of great matchups on Thursday night, but as you’ll see in the picks below, I’m excited for the Grizzlies vs. Blazers showdown. Are the Grizzlies for real after a 4-0 start? Does the Damian Lillard-Ja Morant pairing continue to work? Both of these teams are play-in contenders in the West, and Portland is looking to show that it’s a step above after earning the No. 7 seed in the conference last season. This is the top matchup of the night in my eyes, though the Cavs vs. Hawks game should be great if both teams are fairly healthy on the second night of a back-to-back.

Now, it’s time for the picks!

A 4-1 showing on Wednesday night has started to move things in the right direction, and I’m looking to keep the hot streak going with three bets, including another Cameron Boozer prop, on Thursday.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 13-15 (-4.05 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1630-1542-27 (+26.11 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Domantas Sabonis OVER 13.5 Rebounds (-115)
Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 (-110) vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Cameron Boozer OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-133)

Domantas Sabonis OVER 13.5 Rebounds (-115)

Sacramento Kings big man Domantas Sabonis is averaging an insane 16.5 rebounds per game this season, showing why he had won three consecutive rebounding titles before an injury-plagued 2025-26 season.

Sabonis has 18. 19, 15 and 14 boards in his four games, clearing this total in each of them. Now, he takes on the New Orleans Pelicans, who are playing the second night of a back-to-back after losing to Denver on Wednesday. The Pels didn’t have starting center Yves Missi in that game, forcing them to start veteran DeAndre Jordan. If that’s the case again on Thursday, it could propel Sabonis to a huge game on the boards.

The Pelicans are in the middle of the pack in rebounding numbers through their first four games, ranking 13th in rebound percentage and 16th in opponent rebounds per game.

However, Sabonis in a class of his own on the glass, averaging 25.5 rebound chances per game and coming down with 64.7 percent of them. For comparison, Moussa Diabate is second in the league in rebound chances per game (23.3) and he only comes down with 40.9 percent of those boards.

The best rebounder in the NBA when healthy, Sabonis has played over 33 minutes in every game this season and is locked in as a starter for the Kings. He’s a great bet to come near his season average on the glass on Thursday night.

Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 (-110) vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Both the Grizzlies and Blazers are undefeated this season and in the top six in the league in net rating.

Portland’s numbers are buoyed by a blowout win over the Phoenix Suns in the season opener, but the Blazers picked up an impressive win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday on the road. Still, I don’t think the gap between these teams is this wide, especially without a single player on the injury report for Memphis (a miracle if you’ve followed their injuries the last few years).

Memphis was plus-17.7 points per 100 possessions with Zach Edey on the floor last season, and that has continued into this season with the team posting a plus-29.2 net rating per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

Edey, Boozer, Cedric Coward and Ty Jerome have formed a really solid core for Memphis, which already has three road wins over Golden State, Sacramento and Utah. None of those teams are true playoff contenders in the West, but I do think the Grizzlies have shown that they have a higher floor than initially expected this season.

Portland did most of its damage last season against under .500 teams (26-7), and even with Ja Morant and Damian Lillard in the lineup, I think this price is a little high on Thursday. I’ll take the points as we still continue to figure out who is a real threat in the Western Conference play-in conversation.

Cameron Boozer OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-133)

Boozer has been great for the Grizzlies to begin his rookie season, even though he hasn’t shot the ball at a high level.

The No. 3 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft is averaging 15.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while shooting just 29.5 percent from the field. The shot is a concern, but Boozer should gain his footing as a scorer in the coming weeks.

For this prop, I’m targeting the Grizzlies forward where he’s thrived – as a rebounder and passer. Boozer has 16, 19, 15 and 11 rebounds and assists in his first four games, clearing this prop in three of them.

Portland does rank No. 1 in the league in rebound percentage, but Boozer is averaging 16.0 rebound chances and 10.8 potential assists per game. That gives him an extremely high floor when it comes to this prop, so I’ll continue to back the rookie until oddsmakers adjust.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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