Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Nuggets This Season

The Denver Nuggets faced their worst-case scenario last season. The team was ravaged by injuries, and even though they were healthier by the playoffs, they suffered a first-round exit. In arguably Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray's best statistical season of their careers, the Nuggets still fell well short of expectations.

Now, after a slight retool this offseason, the Nuggets' expectations are a bit lower, but fans still want to see them compete for a title. Let's take a look at their best- and worst-case scenarios for the new season and why each path is realistic.

Best-Case Scenario:

A championship run

Jun 15, 2023; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic gestures to the crowd during the championship parade after the Denver Nuggets won the 2023 NBA Finals. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Since winning their first NBA championship in franchise history in 2023, the Nuggets have failed to even get back to the Western Conference Finals. Two second-round exits and their most recent first-round fail have been far from what we expect from this team, and the high vibes from their championship run three years ago have certainly worn off.

While they have been disappointing over the last few years, we can still hope they can return to glory. With a core of Jokic, Murray, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, and DeMar DeRozan, it feels hard to believe that they are not capable of competing with the best teams in the NBA.

Sure, last season it felt like the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder were in a completely different league than the rest of the Western Conference, but the Nuggets have the firepower to be in that same tier. Jokic is in his prime as a top-three player in the world, Murray is an All-Star point guard, and their supporting cast, when healthy, is one of the league's best groups.

Of course, their best-case scenario involves the entire team staying healthy. Gordon has become a significant question mark after playing their last two playoff runs injured and missing 77 regular season games over the last two years. His health seems to be the team's x-factor, and if he is able to avoid injury, their best-case scenario has a much better chance of coming to fruition.

Worst-Case Scenario:

A second-round playoff exit

Apr 30, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) looks on against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first half during game six of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Now, obviously, their actual worst-case scenario for the season is missing the playoffs or even suffering another first-round playoff exit. However, from a long-term perspective, a second-round exit might be more detrimental.

If the Nuggets miss the 2027 playoffs or lose in the first round again, the front office will realize the roster needs a significant overhaul. And, really, that could be exactly what the franchise needs. If they lose in the second round, though? The front office will be much more willing to run it back and hope for better results in 2028.

Even though a second-round exit would still be a clear indication to fans that the Nuggets' current roster can not compete with the league's best teams, the front office might have a different perspective. If they take the Spurs or Thunder to seven games but lose in the second round, the "oh, but they were so close" thought would certainly creep into the minds of Denver's decision-makers.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, a second-round playoff exit is their most likely scenario for this season. And, yes, at that point, the Nuggets would be better off losing in the first round because it would at least force the front office to make some much-needed changes to the roster and potentially the coaching staff.

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