Nuggets Playoff Scenarios With One Game Remaining

In a battle between two extremely shorthanded teams, the Denver Nuggets took down the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday for their last home game of the regular season. Now, with just one game left, the Nuggets control their own destiny ahead of the playoffs.

As the entire league goes on pause for Saturday to gear up for the last day of the regular season on Sunday, the Nuggets sit in third place in the Western Conference with a 53-28 record. The Los Angeles Lakers are just one game behind them in fourth place with a 52-29 record.

Denver is set to face the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, and there are just two playoff scenarios left, depending on what happens on the last day of the season.

Nuggets' two playoff scenarios

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic controls the ball as Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James — Mar 5, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) controls the ball as Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) guards in the fourth quarter at Ball Arena. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

3rd seed: Nuggets win OR Lakers loss

With a win over the Spurs, the Nuggets will lock up the third spot in the West. However, they have a chance to secure the third spot with a loss. The Nuggets will also finish third if the Lakers lose to the Utah Jazz in their season finale, which is unlikely against a lottery-minded Jazz team.

Since the Minnesota Timberwolves have already secured the sixth seed, the Nuggets would face Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, and company in the first round in this scenario.

Seeds still to be determined entering the regular-season finale Sunday:

West: Nos. 3 and 4; Nos. 8 and 9
East: Nos. 5–10

Complete possibilities ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/yK4Yhixaiw
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 11, 2026

4th seed: Nuggets loss AND Lakers win

With a Nuggets loss on Sunday and a Lakers win, Denver would finish fourth in the West. Since the Spurs have already secured second place in the conference, they have every reason to rest their starters, including Victor Wembanyama, for the season finale. A Denver loss to San Antonio seems unlikely for that reason, but it is still possible.

The Houston Rockets have already secured the fifth seed in the West, meaning if this scenario falls into place, the Nuggets would face Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and company in the first round.

It's simple now.

Nuggets will be the No. 3 seed and face Minnesota if they beat San Antonio OR if Lakers lose to Utah.

Nuggets will be the No. 4 seed and face Houston if they lose to San Antonio AND the Lakers beat Utah.
— Bennett Durando (@BennettDurando) April 11, 2026

Most likely scenario? Most favorable scenario?

While it feels like anything could happen, the most likely scenario certainly seems to be the first one. The Nuggets should beat the Spurs, and if they do not, there is a plausible scenario in which a Lakers team, playing without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, manages to lose to the Jazz. If either of those things happens, they will finish third in the West and face the Timberwolves in the first round.

The Nuggets can expect to find themselves in the third spot heading into the playoffs, but is this where they want to be?

Looking at the possible first-round playoff matchups, the Nuggets would likely lean toward a series against the Rockets. The Nuggets know they can beat either of those teams in a seven-game series, but after the Timberwolves upset the Nuggets in the second round of the 2024 playoffs, there is reason not to lean into that rematch.

Looking further than the first round, though, the Nuggets have to face either the Spurs or Thunder in the second round. By slotting into the third seed, as expected, the Nuggets would go through a gauntlet to get out of the West, facing the Timberwolves, Spurs, and Thunder.

Regardless, they will have trouble getting out of the West, so they are better off striving for a win on Sunday to secure the third seed.