Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Breakdown: 3 Ways Denver Can Beat Minnesota

Here's how the Denver Nuggets can take care of business against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Dec 25, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Bones Hyland (8) and forward Joe Ingles (7) defend on Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) in overtime at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Nuggets are tasked with their third playoff series of the last four years against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the Western Conference action, where the Nuggets will be trying to extend their impressive 12-game winning streak that they ended the regular season with.

Denver may enter the series as heavy betting favorites, and having won three of their four regular-season meetings, it's easy to see why the odds are highly in the Nuggets’ favor before the action officially begins to unfold.

But for the Nuggets to truly come away with another first-round victory, making for their fourth-straight season of advancing past round one, it'll rely on Denver executing in a few critical ways to ensure they can surpass what Minnesota presents right in front of them.

Here's a batch of three key factors for Denver and their success as they approach their first-round series against the Timberwolves:

1. Keeping the Hot Hand From Deep

Nov 17, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon (32) shoots over Chicago Bulls guard Jevon Carter (5) in the second half at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Nuggets tend to have a ton of success this season in games where they're shooting well from deep this season, which makes sense given Denver leads the league in total three-point percentage on the season. But just how strong they are when they shots are falling is hard not to notice.

On nights when the Nuggets are shooting 41% or better from three this season, they have a combined 30-3 record in those showings; one of those losses coming by one point to the Dallas Mavericks in December, and the other two coming from losses to the best two seeds in the West.

If the Nuggets are clicking from deep in any game this series, it's going to be tough for Minnesota to overcome their number-one ranked offense.

2. Take Advantage of Minnesota's Second Unit

Mar 24, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Tim Hardaway Jr. (10) against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Both of these teams haven't been too impressive in terms of bench production throughout this season. Minnesota and Denver are ranked 21st and 20th in total bench scoring, respectively, meaning that when either is tasked to rely on depth, it'll be important for the Nuggets to excel in those opportunities.

For a lot of this season, the Nuggets' bench numbers have been paired with a consistently injured rotation. But now, as long as Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones trend towards a return, Denver will be perfectly healthy at the right time, paired with a Sixth Man of the Year candidate in Tim Hardaway Jr., who's been lights out in their current win streak.

In the 11 games Hardaway Jr. played in the Nuggets' 12-game streak, he's averaged 11.8 points while shooting 6.6 threes a game, connecting an impressive 43.8% of them.

3. It's Time for Playoff Jamal Murray

Apr 6, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach David Adelman and guard Jamal Murray (27) in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

To no surprise, the Nuggets have won a lot of games this season when Jamal Murray scores a lot of points.

In nights where Murray has scored 35 points or more, Denver's put together a 10-3 overall record, with two of those losses coming in overtime. In nights where Murray scores 40 or more points, the Nuggets are an undefeated 5-0.

That's not to say Murray should be expected to average 35-40 points a game in the series for the Nuggets to be able to advance, but it shows that when their star guard has been heavily involved offensively, and turned onto another level, it usually ends in a good result from Denver's perspective.

Look for Murray to be a massive part of the Nuggets' game plan, and could be a top difference-maker that helps Denver find their way to round two as a result. 

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