Nuggets Will Likely Regress in One Key Area This Season

The Denver Nuggets were the NBA's best team last season on one side of the ball. Through 82 games, the Nuggets had the league's top offensive rating, marking the first time the franchise has done so in the Nikola Jokic era. A huge part of this was the team's three-point shooting.

While the Nuggets should still have one of the league's top offenses in the 2026-27 season, it would be surprising if they repeated their success from beyond the arc.

Last season, the Nuggets led the NBA in three-point percentage (39.6%), also marking the third-most efficient three-point shooting season in league history (min. 900 three-pointers made). Granted, the Nuggets are usually effective from deep, but this was a clear outlier that we should not expect to see again this season.

Personnel changes

Mar 24, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Tim Hardaway Jr. (10) against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The biggest reason why the Nuggets will not be as efficient from beyond the arc this season? They lost Tim Hardaway Jr. and Peyton Watson. Last season, the Nuggets had four players shoot 40% or better from three-point range (min. two attempts per game), and two of them are now gone.

Hardaway Jr. shot 40.7% from deep on 6.9 attempts per game in his lone season as a Nugget, and after signing with the Miami Heat in free agency, his absence will certainly be felt. The Nuggets are hoping Julian Strawther can fill his shoes as a sharpshooter off the bench, but it will be hard to replicate what Hardaway Jr. provided for Denver last season.

Tim Hardaway Jr. from DEEP 🎯

He's got a game-high 19 PTS as the Nuggets hold the lead in Q2! pic.twitter.com/oLRMt3CxVI
— NBA (@NBA) January 30, 2026

Watson shot 41.1% from deep on 3.6 attempts per game, having a career year all around before being moved to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a sign-and-trade this summer. And who did the Nuggets replace Watson with? DeMar DeRozan, who is a career 30.2% three-point shooter.

Can the other guys keep it up?

The Nuggets losing Hardaway Jr. and Watson will certainly hinder their success from beyond the arc, and on top of the actual roster changes, we cannot expect guys like Jamal Murray and Cam Johnson to have career years again.

Murray was Denver's best three-point threat last season, shooting 43.5% on a team-high 7.5 attempts per game. Sure, the All-Star guard is usually efficient, but he was on another level last season, and we cannot hold him to those high expectations moving forward.

HAVE YOURSELF A NIGHT, JAMAL MURRAY.

52 POINTS.
10–11 FROM DEEP.
19–25 FROM THE FLOOR.

Denver grabs the road win & moves to 15-6 on the season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/xW4uAp3tDy
— NBA (@NBA) December 4, 2025

Johnson was the Nuggets' second-best shooter, knocking down 43% of his 4.7 attempts per game, especially picking up steam after a slow start to his debut season in Denver. Again, though, this was Johnson's most efficient year of his career, and the Nuggets cannot necessarily expect him to do that again.

The Nuggets should have another top-five offensive season, but fans cannot overreact when the team slips from being the league's best three-point shooting team. It certainly won't be a weakness by any means, but we should just keep our expectations realistic after the team lost two of its top four shooters.

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