Peyton Watson's Next Contract Could Be Much Bigger Than Expected

The Denver Nuggets will likely have to dig deep in their pockets for Peyton Watson this offseason.

Dec 28, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Peyton Watson (8) reacts to a basket made in the second half against the Detroit Pistons at Ball Arena. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Nuggets have two major decisions looming this offseason. The likely priority for them is to get three-time MVP Nikola Jokic to sign a contract extension. Right in line with that, though, is to keep Peyton Watson in Denver.

Watson is a restricted free agent this summer, and coming off a breakout year where he made the most of a larger role on an injury-plagued Nuggets team, his price on the market has certainly jumped. The Nuggets missed out on the chance to sign Watson to an extension last year, and that might have been a costly mistake.

Now, NBA insider Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report is reporting that Watson's next contract could be in the $30-35 million AAV range.

"[The Nuggets] are sending out the signals they are going to match any offer sheet that would come for Peyton Watson ... in the roughly $30-35 million ballpark that people are projecting him at," Fischer said. "... I'll make a bet with you right now. Christian Braun just signed five [years], $125 [million], and Peyton Watson is going to be valued above Christian Braun."

Mar 10, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Peyton Watson (8) and guard Christian Braun (0) high five after scoring against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half at Paycom Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

There has been prior speculation that Watson could be much closer to the $20-25 million AAV range, so is it still worth it for the Nuggets to pay him around $30 million per year?

Is this too high for Denver?

The expectation has been that the Nuggets will match any offer that Watson receives on the restricted free agency market, but that is obviously not entirely true. If Watson gets an offer of $35 million per year, the Nuggets might be out of their minds to match that.

Peyton Watson putback + windmill dunk

SHEESH pic.twitter.com/cNmQnqqNke

— Matt Brooks (@MattBrooksNBA) March 29, 2025

Sure, Watson is a very promising player with a bright future, but the 23-year-old is still largely unproven. If he is making $30-35 million per year, he would be expected to be Denver's third-best player behind Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. While he has the potential to do so, there are reasons to doubt he is ready for that.

This past season, Watson averaged 17.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists,1.0 steals, and 1.2 blocks through 40 starts, while shooting 49.9% from the field and 43.0% from three-point range. Watson had a great season, and there is no denying that. However, the Nuggets should not be paying him more than $25-28 million per year, at the most.

Peyton Watson's floor

Fischer continues to say how the recent wave of rookie-scale contract extensions has set the floor for Watson and other players in similar situations, suggesting that the $20-25 million per year might be Watson's floor.

"Those rookie-scale deals, $25 million AAV, $20 million AAV, that went for Braun, Josh Giddey, Dyson Daniels, those are gonna be the floors for guys like Cason Wallace ... and the same thing with Peyton Watson as well," Fischer said.

𝑵𝑬𝑾𝑺: Nuggets are expected to explore potential trade options with Christian Braun as well as Cam Johnson, per @TheSteinLine

Denver would be looking to create financial flexibility to re-sign Peyton Watson and add to the roster. pic.twitter.com/f1Xm65PiHn

— DNVR Nuggets (@DNVR_Nuggets) June 1, 2026

Ideally, the Nuggets can reach an agreement with Watson much closer to this "floor" price, but they could be willing to cough up some more money depending on who they are able to trade away. Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun are all names to watch as the Nuggets shed salary this offseason, and if they are able to get off one of their larger deals (Gordon or Braun), they should be more willing to pay Watson extra.

It is no secret that the Nuggets want to keep Watson in Denver, which could entice rival teams to bid higher on the young wing in free agency. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, a 23-year-old, lengthy, and athletic two-way wing with improving offense will be a hot commodity on the market, meaning they will likely have to dig deeper into their pockets than expected.

Sign up for our free Denver Nuggets On SI newsletter, and get breaking Nuggets news delivered to your inbox daily!