The Unlucky Truth About Finishing Last in the NBA

A deep dive into how the Draft Lottery has played out in the NBA since odds were flattened

May 17, 2022; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the stage before the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Since the NBA flattened its draft lottery odds in 2019, finishing with the league’s worst record has no longer guaranteed anything close to the No. 1 pick. In fact, history suggests the opposite.

Across seven lottery drawings under the current system, the team with the worst record has remained in the top four just four times. That’s a coin flip outcome—hardly the safety net struggling teams once relied on.

For the Indiana Pacers, that reality carries significant weight. Indiana will only keep its first-round pick if it lands in the top four—a result that currently holds a 52.1% probability.

But if recent history is any indication, that margin is far from comfortable.

A Year-by-Year Look at Lottery Outcomes

Jun 20, 2019; Brooklyn, NY, USA; RJ Barrett (Duke) speaks to the media after being selected as the number three overall pick to the New York Knicks in the first round first round of the 2019 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

In 2019, the New York Knicks finished with the NBA’s worst record at 17–65. They stayed in the top four but dropped to No. 3 overall, selecting RJ Barrett.

In 2020, the Golden State Warriors went 15–50 in a shortened season and landed the No. 2 pick. They missed out on Anthony Edwards, as the Minnesota Timberwolves jumped to No. 1 despite having only the third-worst record.

Jan 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green (4) drives against Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (2) in the second quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

In 2021, the Houston Rockets (17–55) secured the league’s worst record but again fell to No. 2, selecting Jalen Green. The Detroit Pistons, with the second-worst record, jumped to No. 1 and drafted Cade Cunningham.

The pattern continued in 2022. Houston once again finished last (20–62) but slipped to No. 3, selecting Jabari Smith Jr., while Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren went ahead of them.

Jun 22, 2023; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Victor Wembanyama poses for photos with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected first by the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft at Barclays Arena. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Then came 2023—arguably the harshest outcome yet. The Detroit Pistons (17–65) dropped completely out of the top four, landing at No. 5 and selecting Ausar Thompson. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs vaulted up the board and selected Victor Wembanyama, the most anticipated prospect since LeBron James.

Detroit’s misfortune didn’t end there. In 2024, the Pistons again finished with the league’s worst record and again fell to No. 5. They selected Ron Holland, while the Atlanta Hawks leaped from the 10th-worst record to No. 1 overall. Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, Reed Sheppard, and Stephon Castle all went ahead of Holland—each making stronger early impacts.

Last season, the Utah Jazz (17–65) followed the same script, sliding out of the top four and landing at No. 5. They selected Ace Bailey, missing out on Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, V.J. Edgecombe, and Kon Knueppel.

The Pattern Is Clear...and Concerning

The results for teams with the worst record since 2019:

• 3rd overall
• 2nd overall
• 2nd overall
• 3rd overall
• 5th overall
• 5th overall
• 5th overall

Not once has the league’s worst team won the lottery under the flattened system.

Even more alarming: each of the past three seasons has seen the worst team fall completely out of the top four.

What It Means for Indiana

Mar 12, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers center Ivica Zubac (40) in the first half against the Phoenix Suns at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

There’s a growing sense that regression could eventually swing the other way—that the worst team is “due” to land the No. 1 pick. But lottery history doesn’t operate on fairness, and trends offer no guarantees.

That’s what makes Indiana’s decision to include a top-four protected first-round pick in the Ivica Zubac trade so fascinating...and risky.

The Pacers secured a center they believe can anchor their future. But in doing so, they tied part of that future to lottery odds that have consistently worked against the league’s worst teams.

Took my first shot at an NBA Mock Draft as we’re heading into the NCAA Tournament.

Did a Tankathon spin to determine the order, and even threw in a trade where the Bulls move up to get their guy.

Who went first and where did the Pacers pick?

Find out👇https://t.co/7SGHJODwzz

— Alex Golden (@AlexGoldenNBA) March 17, 2026

This is widely viewed as one of the deepest draft classes in years. Even without the No. 1 pick, a top-four selection could deliver a franchise-altering talent, one that is capable of growing alongside Tyrese Haliburton.

The opportunity is there. But history suggests nothing about it is safe.

You can follow me on X @AlexGoldenNBA and listen to my daily podcast, Setting The Pace, wherever you get your podcasts.