What are the odds of Indiana getting an All-NBA Player in the draft?

We deep dive into the analytics since 1976 on how all NBA players are found

Jun 5, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; NBA commissioner Adam Silver speaks to the media before game one between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The work of an NBA general manager is never done. The 6–19 Indiana Pacers appear lottery-bound as they host the 3–20 Washington Wizards today at 3 PM Eastern. Indiana isn’t likely to finish with a worse record than Washington or the New Orleans Pelicans (4–22), which raises the larger question: what are the actual odds of landing an All-NBA player in the 2026 NBA Draft?

All-NBA players are rare in any draft class. Where they come from is an interesting exercise. Since the 1976 NBA/ABA merger through 2024, there have been 143 All-NBA players. Ninety-five of them were selected in the top 10.

The breakdown within the top 10 is revealing. Twenty-five All-NBA players were taken first overall, giving teams a 26.3% chance if they secure the top pick. Eleven were selected second overall (11.5%), while 18 were taken third overall (18.9%), an unexpectedly high number and a research topic for another day.

Adel Burton

From there, the odds flatten out. The fourth pick carries a 7.3% chance, the fifth pick 11.5%, the sixth pick just 3.08%, and the seventh pick 5.3%. The eighth pick drops to 2%, the ninth rebounds to 8.3%, and the tenth pick sits at 5.3%.

The data strongly suggests a top-10 pick is the clearest path to securing an All-NBA player, but it isn’t absolute. Twenty-four All-NBA players were drafted between picks 11 and 20, a 16.7% hit rate. Notable examples include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), Klay Thompson (11th), Kawhi Leonard (15th), Donovan Mitchell (13th), Kobe Bryant (13th), Jermaine O’Neal (17th), and Ron Artest (16th).

Once teams fall outside the top 20, the odds collapse. Just 11 players out of 143 became All-NBA selections from picks 21–30, a 7.6% chance. That group includes Tony Parker (28th), Pascal Siakam (27th), and Jimmy Butler (30th).

Beyond pick 30, the list becomes extremely short. Only nine players have ever made an All-NBA team from that range: Manu Ginóbili (57), Marc Gasol (48), Goran Dragić (45), Michael Redd (43), Jalen Brunson (36), Carlos Boozer (35), DeAndre Jordan (35), Draymond Green (35), and Gilbert Arenas (31).

Only two undrafted players have ever earned All-NBA honors Anthony Mason and Ben Wallace. Moses Malone, drafted in the ABA, also went on to make multiple All-NBA teams.

The takeaway is clear. Draft position matters, and it matters a lot. While elite scouting and player development can occasionally beat the odds, history shows the surest path to an All-NBA player runs directly through the top of the lottery. For teams like Indiana, every loss, lottery ball, and percentage point could be the difference between landing a franchise-altering star or hoping to find lightning in a bottle.