Pacers Receive Major Prediction on Potential Contract Extension for Rising Star

Feb 17, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin (00) and guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) react after competing in the skills challenge during NBA All Star Saturday Night at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The Indiana Pacers have received a major prediction on a potential contract extension for a rising star.

In a new piece, ESPN's Bobby Marks and Tim Bontemps take stock of the possibility that now-starting shooting guard Bennedict Mathurin could net a contract extension by the Oct. 20 deadline. Should the 6-foot-5 Arizona product not earn that extension in time, he'll go on to hit restricted free agency next summer.

Tim Bontemps breaks down why a deal might happen.

More news: Pacers Guard Suffers Scary Head Injury in Preseason Opener

"Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said over the summer that Mathurin, the first single-digit draft pick the Pacers have had in a couple of generations, was going to be a starter with Tyrese Haliburton out for the season," Bontemps writes. "For a team that tends to keep its talent in-house, getting a deal done with Mathurin could make sense."

Haliburton, of course, tore his Achilles tendon early into Game 7 of the Pacers' NBA Finals clash against the Oklahoma City Thunder in June, and has already been ruled out for the balance of the year.

Marks acknowledges that Mathurin's output is due for a bump sans Haliburton, yes, but notes that the cost-conscious Pacers may exercise caution when it comes to paying Mathurin before they absolutely have to.

More news: Pacers Cut Ties With Guard After Scary Injury, Sign 10-Year Vet

"Mathurin's minutes and production should increase this season with Haliburton out," Marks writes. "But can Indiana afford to pay the wing starter money when $80 million is already committed to Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell next season? Mathurin came off the bench in 60% of games played in the past three seasons. An extension would also put Indiana over the luxury tax and near the first apron in 2026-27.

So how much would Marks, a former team president himself, want to pay Mathurin right now, if he did ultimately want to pull the trigger on a deal prior to the start of the season?

"Four years, $68 million. Mathurin's production over the past three years should warrant an extension that pays an average of $17 million," Marks writes. "The wing is one of four players of his draft class to score at least 3,000 points and he averaged 16 points for a second time in his three seasons in 2024-25, while leading all reserves in postseason points. But as we mentioned above, playing time next season and the Pacers' payroll have to be taken into consideration."

So... Will Indiana Extend Mathurin?

Ultimately, of course, the Pacers don't actually have to do anything right now. And Bontemps, for one, thinks they'll wait to pay Mathurin until he hits restricted free agency.

"This one feels unlikely. Indiana, a team that hasn't paid the luxury tax in decades, already has $160 million committed to seven players next season -- leaving the Pacers with about $40 million to fill out the roster below the luxury tax, and without a clear starting center among the players currently under contract," Bontemps writes. "Getting something done that Mathurin would accept now feels too rich for the Pacers within those constraints."

In 72 regular season contests last year (49 starts — Andrew Nembhard ultimately supplanted him as the team's starting two-guard when Haliburton was healthy), Mathurin averaged 16.1 points on .458/.340/.831 shooting splits, 5.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 0.7 steals a night.

For more news and notes on the Indiana Pacers, visit Indiana Pacers on SI.