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Why the Pacers could be among biggest losers if Kawhi lands in Toronto

A deal that could move another All-Star to the Eastern Conference possibly being back on would be bad news for Indiana
Tony Mejia|
Mar 27, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) shoots against Indiana Pacers center Jay Huff (32) in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
Mar 27, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) shoots against Indiana Pacers center Jay Huff (32) in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Indiana PacersToronto Raptors

When Tyrese Haliburton was lost in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers went about attempting to finish the job of beating the Oklahoma City Thunder without him. 

Close as they came to pulling off the impossible, the Pacers failed to win a title. They brushed themselves off, dealt with the heartbreak, and set the table to ensure they would have the best opportunity to take another shot when he was ready to return.

Haliburton will be healthy when the 2026-27 season begins. Indiana has assembled a great cast around him. The Pacers rocked the variables that could be controlled, providing a great environment for their star guard to rehab effectively before adding a piece in center Ivica Zubac they feel will help everything fall into place.

Unfortunately, the variables the Pacers couldn’t control have worked against them.

The latest massive obstacle set to position itself squarely in Indiana’s path has been set in motion with seven-time All-Star Kawhi Leonard inching closer to a return to the Eastern Conference. ESPN reports the NBA found no concrete evidence of salary cap circumvention involving Leonard and the L.A. Clippers, moving him ever closer to finalizing the trade that will bring him back to the Toronto Raptors for the first time since bringing Canada its lone title in 2019.

If Leonard and the Clippers escape major sanctions, the Raptors will be a much tougher basketball team. Reading the tea leaves, expect that to be the conclusion to the saga, which is not what you want to hear if you root for the Pacers.

First those damn ping-pong ball combinations kept the Pacers from landing a top-four pick, limiting the impact last season’s tanking could have on future success. They’ll get a reminder why lottery luck did permanent damage every time they meet Bulls rookie Caleb Wilson.

Now, L.A. skating on league punishment means Indiana will suffer more taxing consequences. Leonard helped facilitate the growth of Pascal Siakam in T.O. and Zubac in L.A., so his fingerprints are all over Indiana’s frontcourt. He's also well aware where the weaknesses of his former teammates lie. Consider the latest Kawhi developments another tough blow to Indy's planned resurgence.

The Eastern Conference is stronger than it was when the Pacers won it for the first time since 2000. Indiana basketball fans likely won’t have to wait another quarter-century to see their team back in the Finals, but this offseason’s player movement could delay immediate gratification even if Haliburton picks up where he left off.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is out of the division, but joined forces with Bam Adebayo and Erik Spoelstra in South Florida. That’s more dangerous to Indiana than if he’d stayed put with the Bucks and mended fences with Myles Turner while playing for Taylor Jenkins. 

LeBron James is back in the East even though he opted not to rejoin Cleveland and Miami, which means Jaylen Brown being dealt by the Boston Celtics has spawned a new power for the Pacers to deal with in Philadelphia. Zionsville’s finest, Brad Stevens, still has a monster to deal with, fortified by ex-Knick Mitchell Robinson’s addition. 

Mikal Bridges will be back in Gain bridge Fieldhouse looking to help the New York Knicks defend the NBA title come playoffs.
May 31, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New York Knicks forward Mikal Bridges (25) dribbles the ball defended by Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) in the third quarter during game six of the eastern conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Defending champion New York will still be Public Enemy No. 1, every bit the arch rival it has always been. All the starters are back for another run at it and counting on complacency tripping up the Knicks will only go so far. 

That Cavs team New York beat will be hungrier. The Pistons, who supplanted both Indy and Cleveland as the Central’s top dogs, will be a year older after arriving ahead of schedule as a surprise 60-win team.

Throw in the aforementioned Heat, Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic and improved Washington Wizards out of the Southeast and it should be clear the Pacers returning to the Finals will require an even better run than what they put together two seasons ago. Only six East teams produced winning records in 2024-25 and Indiana ran through three of the top-five, defeating the Bucks, Cavs and Knicks.

The only All-Star types that have moved from East to West are Brandon Ingram, expected to move from Toronto to L.A. for Leonard, and LaMelo Ball, who was traded to Minnesota. Indiana has to hope Zubac can blossom into a worthy adversary for the conference’s top big men and Bennedict Mathurin’s impact off the bench can be adequately replaced.

LeBron, Anthony Davis, James Harden, Desmond Bane, Andrew Wiggins, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Norman Powell are now in the conference less than 14 months after that ill-fated Game 7 in OKC. Now, it looks like Kawhi will join that list. 

Leonard is 35 years old now, but played 65 games in ‘25-26, marking the second time in three campaigns where he’s played over 75 percent of regular-season contests. He averaged a career-high 27.9 points for the Clippers despite barely playing 32 minutes a night, so he’s going to be an upgrade on Ingram, who made his second All-Star appearance for the Raptors while averaging 21.5 points.

Although seven years younger, Ingram disappeared during Toronto’s playoff run this past spring, averaging 12 points and shooting under 33 percent from the field in being the main culprit in the Raps’ first-round demise as they fell to Cleveland in six.

With Leonard arriving, the Raptors will now have a Final MVP leading the charge. That will place Toronto among a group that includes New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Miami in being led by former champions. 

If Leonard is healthy enough to make his usual impact, the Pacers’ path to another NBA Finals is about to be significantly tougher.

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Tony Mejia
TONY MEJIA

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