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Finding Ways Jonas Valanciunas, Pelicans Can Agree On A New Contract

Jonas Valanciunas and the New Orleans Pelicans have discussed a contract extension.

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New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans

NEW ORLEANS – Executive vice president David Griffin told fans to expect "tweaks" this offseason, not wholesale changes to the roster.  Well, a recent interview with Jonas Valanciunas has reinforced that assertion from the team's lead executive.  The 31-year-old Lithuanian shared that not only would he like to stay with this team but there have already been conversations about a contract extension.

"We had some talks with [the team]. I think this summer won't be easy for them because they will have to make a few key decisions. Our season didn't go as planned, so there will definitely be changes," Valanciunas told 24Sek's Kestas Rimkus.

Jonas Valanciunas

"I would like to stay and extend my contract," Valanciunas added. "Obviously, during the season, you try to help the team as much as possible, but when the summer comes, you try to take care of your own things – how to extend the contract and stuff."

Valanciunas started 79 games last season, averaging 14.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, in 24.9 minutes per game.  The team's starting center shot 54.7% from the floor, 34.9% from three-point range, and a career-best 82.6% at the foul line.

The respected veteran fell out of Willie Green's favor late in the season but could still be a big part of the team's future. Griffin said during exit interviews, “Have we seen enough to know unequivocally that it worked when we were No. 1 in the West?  No. But we’ve seen enough to know we’re close. We’re in and around it.  I think it’s tweaks more than its huge moves.  But I also know we’re open-minded if something significant has to happen.”

“We’re moving in the right direction,” Griffin shared after being eliminated in the NBA Play-In Tournament. “We might not be moving as quickly as you would like it to happen. But as long as we grow from what we learn, nothing is fatal.   This only gets bad if you try to go too far too fast and put yourself in a position you can’t get out financially.  We are really, really well positioned to be sustainable in the future with an incredibly talented core of young players that care about one another and care about winning in this city.  They want to be here and want to win here.”

Herb Jones

Valanciunas wants to be in New Orleans and has all the attributes of a locker-room leader who can be trusted with 20 minutes in the playoffs.  The offense is still very effective when ran through Valanciunas, who can operate from the low block, elbow, and top of the key.  Having this option could let Zion Williamson get a few extra minutes of rest throughout the regular season. 

Sure, the Pelicans need a more versatile big with a different skill set but they have no reason to get rid of Valanciunas.  His lumbering, low-block bully playing style might dip with age but is still worth the $15.43 million cap hit this season and will not cost much more going forward.

In the upcoming FIBA World Cup, Lithuania will play in Group D and face Egypt, Montenegro, and Mexico.  Looking at the NBA Finals, Valanciunas has shot 60% from the field & 47% from in his career against Nikola Jokic.  He might be worth keeping around as long as a pay raise is not part of the negotiations, just for certain critical matchups. 

It is also worth considering that Valanciunas has expressed a desire to play in Europe again before he retires. 

"I can see myself playing for a European club. I felt sympathy for European basketball for the whole of my life, so I would not rule out such a possibility in the future.  At this moment, I prefer teams with Lithuanian connections, including Barcelona with Saras and Rokas [Jokubatis].  Whether I'll play there one day?  It's difficult to say. It's two different things to support and play for the team."

So how does all of this affect negotiations? Where's the middle ground and what makes sense for both sides?

Coming To Terms On Contract

Griffin, CJ McCollum, and most of the younger players have credited Valanciunas for being available both on and off the court.  It could be argued he is underpaid all things considered.  Just look at the win shares in the tweet above and the games played this season.  However, Valanciunas does not test the open market, preferring to sign longer deals that secure the future early.

The front office will be hard-pressed to get a better return in a trade unless Valanciunas is part of a package that nets an All-NBA caliber return.  New Orleans needs to control assets with positive trade value and the $15 million expiring contract is only worth so much at the trade deadline next season.

Jonas Valanciunas

Valanciunas is still good enough to be priced out of the Taxpayer MLE market for years to come.  The 2023-24 Non-Tax MLE starts at approximately $10 million. It's not a mechanism to sign Valanciunas but does give both sides a starting point.  He makes just over $15.4 million this season so finding a middle ground for future wages should be easy, it just comes down to the years.

First, a four-year deal is off the table due to age, money, trade value, and a desire to play a few good years in Europe. His agent can forget about an Average Annual Value raise up to a CBA max of $21 million.  Expect a two- or three-year extension at most.  A three-year extension should have decreasing cap-hit values over the last two years.

The numbers, both raw totals and advanced metrics, suggests Valanciunas (currently 15th) should not be among the 20 highest-paid centers.  The Pelicans need offense and he is 39th in Offensive Rating among centers with 50 games and 1500 minutes played.

There are plenty of other stats that the Pelicans will use to make a case that Valanciunas should expect a substantial decrease in pay.  All stats are just sorted through the Center position (minimum 50 games played) on the NBA Stats tool:

  • 19th Total Minutes
  • 14th Total Points
  • 14th Field Goals Attempted
  • 13th Field Goals Made
  • 56th Field Goal Percentage
  • 31st Three Pointers Attempted
  • 17th Three-Point Percentage
  • 18th Free Throws Attempted
  • 18th Assists
  • 8th Turnovers
  • 53rd Steals
  • 34th Blocks
  • 4th Personal Fouls (245 total. Only 3 Centers with more.)
  • 5th Total Rebounds
  • 6th Defensive Rebounds
  • 11th Offensive Rebounds
Chris Paul

The Pelicans need spacing, rebounding, and defense. Valanciunas is only above-average to elite in one of those categories. His defense is deteriorating to the point of being one-dimensional, only able to guard other traditional low-block centers. His spacing and shooting are starting to become something opposing teams will live with, and the value of both is diminished when Zion Williamson is healthy.

The process should still end with a contract extension. The parameters have to fall in line though, or the Pelicans will have to find a trade partner before draft night to extract maximum value. Not many contenders will be paying a premium at the next trade deadline.

  • Suggested Two-Year Extension: $15.75M (2024-25), $12.25M (2025-26)
  • Suggested Three-Year Extension: $15.55M (24/25), $12.25M (25-26), $11M with $7 million guaranteed (26-27)

Both deals keep a mid-level contract on the books for the next two seasons. That helps in both making bigger deals and also shedding salary at the deadline to stay under the luxury tax. Fans saw that play out this year in the Devonte' Graham plus second-round picks for Josh Richardson swap this season.

This is likely the last NBA contract Valanciunas will get though, so his agent might press for more dollars more aggressively than in the past. The two-year deal guarantees Valanciunas about $28 million and would be easier to trade in a year from now as a lower-priced expiring deal. The three-year deal only puts the Pelicans on the hook for $33.5 million over three years. 

That's about the same average annual value of the 15th-25th most talented and highest-paid centers. It might be a slight overpay considering the upcoming free agent class but New Orleans has to keep talent in town somehow. 

Rewarding a respected veteran that can be useful later is a good start, especially if they strike out looking for options elsewhere. Sometimes what you've got is good enough for now and looking to upgrade is time better spent on other problems. It might seem like hedging bets or kicking the can down the road, but that's where the Pelicans and Valanciunas are at right now.

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