Ranking Value Of Pelicans Future Draft Picks

The New Orleans Pelicans are starting to run out of highly-valued NBA Draft selections in the future.

Author:
Chris Dodson
Apr 25, 2023 5:21 PM EDT

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NEW ORLEANS- The New Orleans Pelicans could have up to 10 NBA Draft picks throughout the rest of the 2020s. However, not all draft picks are created equal and the team likely does not have a roster spot for every potential draftee. Not with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Trey Murphy III rounding out the future core.

Guys like Jose Alvarado are too valuable, and too cheap, to just cast aside. Add a few veterans and factor in a few trades over the next half decade and it is hard to see how 10 different rookies could fit on the roster over the same time period.

So which picks are worth keeping and which should be used to as make-weights in trades? There is one big wildcard this front office still has to worry about but that will be sorted out soon enough. Ranking the value of the other draft assets requires a longer view of the NBA landscape.

Oct 4, 2022; Henderson, NV, USA; Boulogne-Levallois Metropolitans 92 forward Victor Wembanyama (1) looks on during the game against the NBA G League Ignite at The Dollar Loan Center. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports

The Win-Now Wildcard

2023- The NBA Draft Lottery results will be revealed on May 16. All that is known now is the Pelicans will either pick 14th or somewhere in the top 4. The front office has to wait until the lottery draw is finalized to know whether this pick can really tilt the scales in negotiations.

This could be the best asset if New Orleans lucks into Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, or Brandon Miller. However, New Orleans might be better off using the pick if they get lucky enough to move up. The roster would get an All-Star level talent injection at below Mid-Level Exception costs.

The offers coming in for a top-4 pick will be enticing. The 14th overall pick would probably be viewed as the 6th or 7th best draft asset available by other teams looking to make a deal. As for the other picks...

Feb 25, 2021; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) pressures New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) in the third quarter at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Zion, Lebron, Giannis All Bolt?

Zion Williamson's contract runs through the 2025-26 season with no player/club options. Lebron James has a player option next summer, which is also when his son Bronny will be draft-eligible. Giannis can be a free agent in two years' time.

So the question lingers in the war rooms: Who bolts, and which team will win the biggest bets? Will New Orleans get Zion to sign a third deal? Will Lebron chase the dream of playing with his son regardless of location? Can Giannis create a dynasty in Milwaukee, or will the Bucks crumble in the first round this week?

A contract extension or trade is the usual course of action, as it was with Anthony Davis and dozens of other stars around the league. I'd bet against Williamson hitting unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2026.

At least one team will be placing a bet that Williamson bolts town. EVP David Griffin has repeatedly mentioned a "sustainable championship culture." Well, in action that meant the Pelicans loaded up on 2025 selections with some of the same kind of hedged bets on Lebron James and Giannis Antekounmpo.

Herb Jones on LeBron James — Apr 1, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) is defended by New Orleans Pelicans forward Herbert Jones (5) and center Jonas Valanciunas (17) as he drives to the basket in the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

2024- The Pelicans have swap rights with the Bucks and the 2024 pick from L.A. but they can defer until 2025. Anthony Davis and Lebron could leave town at the same time though, making that 2025 Lakers pick the most valuable draft asset to dangle. It would transfer sooner rather than later and has the best chance of landing at the top of the draft.

2025- New Orleans controls their own pick in what is currently scheduled to be Zion's last year under contract. They have Milwaukee's pick but only protected 1-4. If it falls, it goes to the Knicks. Then there is the deferred pick from Los Angeles if not taken in 2024.

The Pelicans and Bucks will still be loaded with talent. Los Angeles could land in the lottery. It will be interesting to see if the Pelicans use 2025 as the 'swap-year' in any deals or if the front office sends the picks out unencumbered. Getting top-6 protections on the Lakers' pick would have to be in play if other teams insist on it being included in a deal.

2026- It's either their own or Milwaukee's when the FIFA World Cup comes to America that summer. Best case: The Bucks are beyond the Giannis era. Kris and Jrue have moved on to contribute elsewhere. The Pelicans get a lottery pick. Worst Case: The lottery pick is their own. Zion, B.I., and likely the front office have all moved on.

2027-Milwaukee has to send this pick. It all depends on how Giannis goes about business, especially as Jrue Holiday and Kris Middleton age out of contention. The Bucks are already on the verge of being ousted in the first round this year. If they do not retool quickly, the Pelicans will have another chance at striking gold or getting good value on the trade market.

Sep 27, 2021; New Orleans, LA, USA; David Griffin during a press conference at the New Orleans Pelicans Media Day. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

Back Half Of The Lottery

2024-New Orleans can keep their pick or swap with the Milwaukee Bucks. Much like the option to take a better 2023 pick from the Lakers evaporated over the final months of the regular season, it is unlikely a swap is worth anything if Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Kris Middleton, and Brook Lopez stick together.

The Pelicans and Bucks should both have a mid-to-late 20s pick, if healthy. That's a different wager, however, and one I'd rather not speculate on with even house money. Still, this pick is probably not as valuable as some others later down the line.

Looking down that line, New Orleans should be rebuilt, reloaded, or looking to repeat by the time the 2027 NBA Draft rolls around. They only control their own three picks for the last three years of the decade. If the Pelicans look like a team willing to pay the luxury tax in the coming years, the value of the 2027 and later picks go down for several reasons.

For one, the team would be winning. Also, the new CBA would possibly bump these even further back. So, as it stands, the front office could break down the draft war chest into three ranked groups.

Top Picks To Protect: Pelicans (2023, 1-4), Lakers (2025), Bucks (2025, 1-4), Bucks (2027)

Average Trade Assets: Pelicans (2023, 14th), Pelicans (2025), Pelicans/Bucks (2026 NO best-of swap)

Bargaining Bin: Pelicans/Bucks (2024 NO gets best-of swap), Pelicans (2027, 2028, 2029)

So that's two high-value assets, with two more as longshot possibilities. Then there are three average value picks and four bargain picks to throw at any bidding war. Those picks bargain picks will come in handy this summer. Toronto and Brooklyn were looking for an extra pick to snag OG Anunoby or Mikal Bridges at the deadline, for example.

The roster is about to get expensive but "there is a number one seed" already in the locker room according to the standing in December and Larry Nance Jr. during exit interviews.

The strategy seems straightforward: Ask for swaps on the lottery tickets and let the rest go. The Pelicans have found ways to split protections and trade picks twice in essence. They've also had swap options and draft asset values go up in smoke on occasion.

There are several stars voicing frustrations and looking for a new home next season. This young team is poised to make a run. It does not have to be a Luka Doncic or Dame Lillard home run swing but time is running out to make moves under the tax line. Take those lessons learned and cash in some of the remaining assets with no room on the roster for what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.