Four Potential Paths Forward for Jalen Duren and the Pistons

Less than a week before the Pistons reconvene in Detroit for media day, All-Star center Jalen Duren remains a restricted free agent.

The stalemate between Duren and the franchise that drafted him has become the NBA’s never-ending offseason saga. It’s a sticky situation, but no matter the hangups, it’s surprising that the negotiations—or lack thereof—have dragged on this long.

Another wrinkle came into play last week when the Pistons inked Ausar Thompson to a five-year, $155 million rookie extension. Thompson led the NBA in steals last season and was named first team All-Defense. He became extension eligible this summer, and while it was expected Detroit would commit to him long-term, it also was assumed the Duren situation would get resolved first.

Duren took a huge step forward last season, as he averaged a career-high 19.5 points along with 10.5 rebounds per game. In addition to his first All-Star appearance, he snuck into the All-NBA group with third team honors. All-NBA status made Duren eligible for a five-year, $287 million maximum contract. As a 22-year-old with those accolades, it’s fair for Duren to think the Pistons should back up the Brinks truck. Especially after he looked like a clear second option to Cade Cunningham for the great majority of last season, a year where the Pistons won 60 games and earned the top seed in the Eastern Conference.

But, there’s an issue. Duren looked like a shell of himself in the playoffs. His scoring numbers decreased by half, he turned the ball over too much and looked absent at times. Plus, the most glaring issue: Detroit has all the leverage because he’s a restricted free agent.

Early in the offseason, rumors swirled that Duren sought out sign-and-trade possibilities out of Detroit, with the Kings and the Lakers named as suitors. Los Angeles then acquired Utah’s Walker Kessler, which took Duren off the table. Sacramento remains an option, but the Pistons have been reluctant to entertain offers for their All-Star big, as far as we know.

On Monday, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Detroit has upped its offer to $200 million over five years. The Atlhletic confirmed the offer and added that the Kings have signaled a willingness to pay Duren a max salary next summer, as well as the presence of two other teams (including the Bucks) who have serious interest in the Pistons center both now and next offseason.

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So, how will this all end? That’s the big question. As the season inches closer, we mapped out a number of possible resolutions for Detroit as the franchise looks to continue on as a top dog in the improved Eastern Conference:

1. Pay the man and live happily ever after

Jalen Duren was named to his first All-Star team last season | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Detroit increased its offer from $190 million to $200 million, which Duren has balked at thus far, according to The Athletic. It’s possible the Pistons increase their offer once again in an effort to smooth things over and move forward with the pick-and-roll duo of Cunningham and Duren.

With Cunningham on a max contract and Thompson’s extension done, the Pistons want to keep their cap sheet as clean as possible to build a sustainable contender for the long haul. Detroit doesn’t want to overpay, and there are very few centers with $200-plus million contracts right now: Nikola Jokić, Victor Wembanyama, Chet Homgren and Karl-Anthony Towns. That’s the list.

Yes, Duren is an All-Star and made All-NBA last season. But is he in that stratosphere? All four of those guys space the floor, Duren does not. Wembanyama and Holmgren are elite defenders, Duren is not. Jokić is an anomaly who averages a triple-double, which no one else does. Detroit could go bigger to put this all in the rearview mirror, but that’s likely what Duren and his camp are looking for right now. If the playoff regression continues, an overpay would see Detroit holding a bad contract well into Cade Cunningham’s prime.

2. Sign Duren to a short-term deal worth more than his qualifying offer

This option is fairly undiscussed, but I think it may make sense in this case. If Duren takes his $9.6 million qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, inherent no-trade protection comes with that, which gives him some leverage. There’s a way around that, though.

Quentin Grimes was a restricted free agent with the 76ers last summer and Philadelphia offered him a slightly higher one-year deal than his qualifying offer to give up the inherent no-trade clause. Philly offered him an extra $100,000 in exchange for letting go of the veto rights. Grimes turned that down, played out the year on his $8.7 million qualifying offer and signed with the Lakers over the offseason. He walked for nothing, although Philly is fine after its offseason additions of LeBron James and Jaylen Brown.

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I see Duren’s situation more similar to Jonathan Kuminga’s saga with the Warriors. Golden State was far apart in contract talks with Kuminga, who wanted a lucrative long-term deal. The Warriors offered him $75 million over three years, but he ultimately decided on a shorter term two-year, $46.8 million contract with a team option on the second year. That didn’t work out in Kuminga’s favor. He was traded to the Hawks, who declined the team option, and he ended up signing with Minnesota on a prove-it deal. But the Pistons could offer Duren a decent salary over a shorter term, which would let Detroit trade him later and allows him to hit the open market sooner.

This path would mean Duren turns down a considerable amount of guaranteed money and the Pistons likely wouldn’t give him a player option—it would be the team’s choice on a second or third season as was the case with Kuminga. But it’s a middle ground that would get Duren more than his qualifying offer now while the Pistons maintain flexibility to trade him later.

3. Roll the dice and let Duren play out the year on the qualifying offer

The Pistons shouldn’t want Duren to sign the qualifying offer and hit unrestricted free agency next summer. That puts the franchise at risk of losing its homegrown, All-NBA center for nothing. If he takes the qualifying offer, that should signal the end of his time in Detroit. He’d want to play elsewhere, but in this case, he’d have veto power in trades, which puts the Pistons in a corner. If the five-year, $200 million offer is their best and final, though, future roster-building concerns are a good enough reason to stop there and (possibly) call Duren’s bluff.

Taking the qualifying offer is a risk for the player, too. There’s a health risk that Duren would assume by playing a full NBA season as he awaits free agency. His performance could take a dive as well. His value will likely never be higher than it is now, which makes turning down $200 million an incredible gamble.

NEXT: The Pistons Should Seriously Consider Trading Jalen Duren Amid Stalled Contract Talks. Here's Why.

4. Cut the losses—work out a trade now and move forward

With the Pistons increasing their offer and Duren remaining unsigned, a trade has to be a possibility at this point. Detroit refused to engage in sign-and-trade talks early in the offseason, but it’s time to change that tune if the organization hasn’t already. Turning down $200 million is a wild move no matter if Duren and his team thinks they can extract more money from Detroit. Maybe it’s a bluff and he will sign before the qualifying offer deadline, but until he signs, declining the guaranteed money is on the table.

A deal with Sacramento would likely bring back Domantas Sabonis, which doesn’t exactly get the juices flowing. Milwaukee could send Myles Turner to Detroit and his floor-spacing ability could solve the lack of shooting from Thompson. However, he’s not a dominant, All-Star big who’s still 22 years old. In any deal, the prize for Detroit would be the draft capital it receives which could be used to reshuffle the deck or, more likely, flipped for immediate roster improvements around Cunningham and Thompson.

If the relationship is fractured, a divorce is an option that has to be considered. Getting assets now is a lot better than losing Duren for nothing next summer. Although the saga continues to drag on, there are options. And the next step is absolutely critical for the Pistons’ future.

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