NBA Draft Lottery: What Raptors Fans Need to Know Before Tonight’s Draw

The future of the Toronto Raptors will be decided tonight.

It sounds dramatic, but in a league where one player can transform a franchise overnight, that’s exactly what Toronto is banking on when the ping-pong balls start bouncing at 7 p.m. ET in Chicago.

Here’s the situation: The Raptors have a 7.5% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, a spot they’ve only held once before. In 2006, they selected Andrea Bargnani in a draft without a clear-cut star. This year, the prize is Duke phenom Cooper Flagg, a player widely seen as a franchise-altering talent.

If they miss on Flagg, the No. 2 pick would still be a strong consolation prize. Toronto has a 7.8% chance of moving up to that spot, where Rutgers guard Dylan Harper is projected to go.

Beyond the top two picks, the draft becomes less predictable. Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe and Rutgers’ Ace Bailey are widely expected to go third and fourth. Toronto has an 8.1% chance at No. 3 and an 8.5% shot at No. 4.

Here’s how the lottery works: The 14 non-playoff teams are assigned four-digit combinations based on their record. The league’s three worst teams — Utah, Washington, and Charlotte — each have a 52.1% chance of moving into the top four. The Raptors, holding the seventh-worst record, have a 31.9% chance of jumping into the top four.

Once the top four spots are drawn, the remaining picks are slotted in reverse order of the standings. That structure gives the worst teams the best remaining picks.

But Toronto could also slide down the order. If any of the teams slotted 8 through 14 move into the top four, the Raptors will be bumped down. In a worst-case scenario, if four teams behind them leap into the top four, Toronto could drop as low as No. 11, though the odds of that happening are less than 1%.

The most likely outcome for the Raptors is a 34.1% chance they end up at No. 8, falling one spot after being jumped by a lower-slotted team. There’s a 12.9% chance they drop to No. 9 and a 1.3% chance they fall to No. 10. They have a 19.7% chance of staying put at No. 7.

For Toronto, the ideal scenario is for the draft lottery to proceed in the expected order, with San Antonio, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Portland, Houston, and San Antonio again being revealed in that sequence from picks 14 through 8. If that order holds, Toronto can’t drop lower than No. 7.

When the seventh pick is revealed, the Raptors will be hoping to see a logo from Brooklyn, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, or Charlotte. If any of those teams show up, it means Toronto has moved into the top four.

Put simply: The longer it takes for the Raptors’ logo to appear, the better their night is going. Every spot that passes without their logo being unveiled keeps the door open for a game-changing outcome. Now, all Toronto can do is wait, hope, and watch as the lottery balls decide their fate.

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