Raptors Playoff Scenarios: Here's the Magic Number For No. 6 Seed

With only three games remaining in the regular season, the Toronto Raptors (44-35) find themselves in a solid position.

Currently sitting at No. 6 in the Eastern Conference, the Raptors holds the final guaranteed playoff spot, narrowly avoiding the chaos of the Play-In Tournament. This means they control their own destiny.

However, the Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets are all breathing down their necks, so the margin for error is slim to none. Here is how the standings shake out based on Toronto’s performance in their final three games against the Miami Heat, New York Knicks and the Brooklyn Nets.

Scenario 1: The Clean Sweep (3-0, Final Record: 47-35)

Toronto Raptors forward Brandon Ingram celebrates making a three point basket. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Winning out guarantees the Raptors avoid the Play-In. Even if the 76ers or Magic also win their remaining games, they can only reach 46 wins. The Raptors would likely set their sights on chasing the Atlanta Hawks (45-34) for the No. 5 seed, though they would need Atlanta to stumble finish 1-2 or worse.

Clinching a 3-0 record to close out the season would give the Raptors a week to recover before a playoff series against either the Knicks or Cleveland Cavaliers.

Scenario 2: The Strong Finish (2-1, Final Record: 46-36)

Toronto Raptors forward RJ Barrett celebrates with guard Ja'Kobe Walter. | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Going 2-1 almost certainly keeps the Raptors in the top six. For Toronto to fall into the Play-In in this scenario, the Sixers or Magic would have to win all of their remaining games and hold the tiebreaker over the Raptors. Toronto has the tiebreaker over Orlando, but not over Philadelphia.

While a 2-1 record would likely kill any chance to move up to No. 5, they get out of the Play-In Tournament, which is the main goal.

Scenario 3: The Danger Zone (1-2, Final Record: 45-37)

Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic walks off the court. | David Reginek-Imagn Images

This is where things get messy. If the Raptors only win one more game, they open the door for the Sixers and Magic to leapfrog them. If any of those teams go 3-0, the Raptors falls to the No. 7 seed. If they both go 3-0, Toronto could drop to No. 8.

At No. 7 or 8, Toronto would only need to win one game (out of a possible two) to secure a playoff spot, likely hosting the first Play-In game at Scotiabank Arena.

Scenario 4: The Collapse (0-3, Final Record: 44-38)

Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic reacts to a call in favour of the Detroit Pistons. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

A winless finish is the last thing the Raptors want. The Raptors would almost certainlty be passed by any rival who finds even a single victory, but they could theoretically slide as low as No. 9 if the Miami Heat (41-38) sweep their remaining games (including Thursday against Toronto).

Sliding to No. 9 would mean Toronto must win two consecutive elimination games just to earn the No. 8 seed and a date with the top-seeded Detroit Pistons.

The Bottom Line

The Raptors control their own destiny. They need to return to their identity as a defensive-minded team to achieve their goals, which is exactly where playoff hopefuls want to be at this point in the playoff race.

If they play like they did in their latest win against the Heat, they should beat them again when the two teams meet for a rematch. The game against the Knicks on Friday, April 10 will be tough, especially on the second night of a back-to-back, but if they can beat the Brooklyn Nets in the season finale, a 2-1 or 3-0 record should be achieved, giving the Raptors a great chance at the No. 6 seed.

Their next game against the Heat comes tomorrow at 7 p.m. ET inside Scotiabank Arena. Fans can watch the game on Sportsnet or stream it on NBA League Pass.