Lottery Look: Raptors' Magic Number Shrinks But Tiebreaker Remains Possible

The Toronto Raptors need two more losses this year to ensure they'll clinch sole possession of the seventh worst record in the NBA this year

Mar 23, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; San Antonio Spurs guard Chris Paul (3) drives to the net against Toronto Raptors guard Scottie Barnes (4) during the second half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Toronto Raptors’ magic number to secure the seventh spot in the draft lottery standings is down to just two.

Toronto can clinch the seventh spot with any combination of two Raptors losses, two San Antonio wins, or one of each. But even with five games remaining, that outcome is far from guaranteed.

The Raptors are likely to pick up one of those losses Friday night on the second half of a back-to-back against the playoff-bound Detroit Pistons. After that, things get a little more complicated. Games with the Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets might not be as easy to drop, and while a depleted Dallas Mavericks team should have enough talent to knock off the Raptors, a Toronto win there could push the race to the final game of the season against San Antonio.

On the Spurs’ side, the road to losses looks a bit smoother. They face a nearly full-strength Cleveland Cavaliers team on Friday, then a more losable game against the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. After that, they’ll enter a relatively tough three-game stretch against the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, and Phoenix Suns. If the standings remain tight, that final matchup with the Raptors could have major implications for draft positioning.

There’s also the possibility that the Raptors and Spurs finish the season tied.

In that case, the league uses a coin flip to determine who lands seventh and who falls to eighth. The two teams would split the combined lottery odds for the top-four picks and Toronto's odds would fall even further. Rather than holding a 32% chance at a top-four pick as the sole seventh seed, their odds would drop to 29% in the event of a tie.

Looking in the other direction, Toronto’s chances of climbing in the lottery standings have all but disappeared. Brooklyn holds a three-game cushion in the reverse standings with five games to play and is unlikely to falter. The Nets close out the year against Toronto, New Orleans, Atlanta, Minnesota, and New York. Even if they win just one or two of those, it'll be enough to stay ahead of the Raptors.

The Raptors have done their part to stay in the race, and now it’s just a matter of finishing the job. With only a few games left, the path to locking in the seventh spot is clear, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy. Every result from here on out matters.