The 10 Players With the Most at Stake Over the 2026

The start of a new NBA season puts a microscope on each team and the big decisions made over the offseason.

Each front office made tweaks and some completed a roster overhaul to put their squad in position to take a step forward this year. Big contracts were handed out, significant trades were made and some players had the can kicked down the road when it comes to their long-term future with their respective teams.

Whether it’s for contract reasons or pressure to win now, plenty of players around the league head into the new season with a lot on the line. Some guys need to prove that the front offices who just took a bet on them made the right move. Others need to have a good season to lock in a long-term contract. And, of course, superstars have to win.

Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s 10 players with the most at stake throughout the upcoming season for one reason or another, listed alphabetically by last name:

LaMelo Ball, Minnesota Timberwolves

How exactly will this pairing of Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball work? In theory, Ball’s presence, gravity and passing ability should make Edwards’s life easier and play off the ball more. They will likely need some time, though. Plus, Minnesota won’t get anything defensively out of Ball.

What he will do is play unselfishly, knock down shots and take much of the ballhandling duties off Edwards’s plate. The trade for Ball was Minnesota’s move to do something in an effort to compete with the Spurs and the Thunder, who have fully taken over as the class of the West. After two straight trips to the Western Conference finals, San Antonio took care of Minnesota fairly easily in the second round. It’s a good thought to add some juice as both teams remain at the top, but does Ball move the needle that much? His arrival makes Minnesota one of the most fascinating teams to track throughout the season.

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Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are Luka’s team more than ever with LeBron James’s departure over the offseason. Rob Pelinka completely retooled the roster to complement Dončić with the notable sign-and-trade for Walker Kessler, plus free-agent signings of Sandro Mamukelashvili, Quentin Grimes and Collin Sexton. Most importantly, Austin Reaves got a new deal to continue on as Dončić’s No. 2.

“I think we’re very deep, which is very important, especially going to the playoffs,” Dončić said of the new-look roster to Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix. “And we have guys that are not afraid. Some of the new guys, I’ve played against. They are not afraid.”

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Last season, Dončić led the league in scoring with 33.5 points per game, more than MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s nightly output. The biggest question for the Lakers is on the defensive end, which puts pressure on Dončić and Reaves to keep the team afloat with their scoring. Luckily, Dončić is one of (if not the) best scorers and creators in the game.

Once the Mavericks shockingly dealt him to Los Angeles, he immediately became the Lakers’ superstar of the future. He already took over as the top option, but he now fully takes over with the keys to the franchise. We’ll see how high Dončić can take the Lakers this year after the roster was shaken up to fit his game.

Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons

Duren’s offseason standoff with the Pistons is resolved as he remains with Detroit on a five-year, $200 million contract. The contract dispute went right up to the deadline for him to decide on a one-year qualifying offer because of a reported distance in value between the two parties.

On one hand, Duren was an All-Star and All-NBA player as he helped the Pistons win 60 games last season. On the other, he fell apart in the playoffs and the team already had a max contract for Cade Cunningham on the books. Houston’s Amen Thompson—who has yet to make an All-Star team or receive All-NBA honors—got a $208 million extension. It’s understandable why the Pistons wouldn’t up their final offer as the team aims to maintain flexibility and build a long-term contender around Cunningham, Duren and Ausar Thompson. Still, it was a tricky situation that ultimately ended with Duren’s long-term commitment.

Historically, the biggest question that’s faced Detroit was who would be Cunningham’s second option. Duren looked the part over the regular season, but he needs to come out and right the wrongs from the postseason, even with a new contract. Especially after Detroit didn’t bring in a secondary scorer to put alongside Cunningham over the offseason.

James Harden, Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are championship or bust, no question about it. Over the summer, Harden re-signed on a three-year contract, Donovan Mitchell got a max extension and Peyton Watson was brought in through a sign-and-trade with Denver. Plus, the addition of Mario Hezonja in his return to the NBA is intriguing.

With Mitchell, Harden, Watson, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavs are going all in on the belief that this roster can take the team to the Finals and eventually hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Although Mitchell is at the top of the food chain, Harden has the most pressure on him to make the whole operation work. Cleveland took a big swing to acquire him at last year’s deadline and the Cavs later made a run to the Eastern Conference finals. They put up a stinker against the Knicks, which wasn’t the end of the world a few months into the Harden experiment.

In his first full season with Cleveland, Harden will need to prove he’s worth $30-plus million over the next three seasons. Should the Cavs disappoint in the playoffs, the front office will have to ask itself some difficult questions next offseason.

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Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder

Holmgren had his best season yet last year as he earned his first All-Star nod, plus third team All-NBA and second team All-Defense honors. He finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting to Victor Wembanyama, too. He stepped up as Gilgeous-Alexander’s second option while Jalen Williams dealt with injuries throughout the season.

The Western Conference finals series against the Spurs was an issue, though. Holmgren struggled mightily, and not just against Wemby. He wasn’t as impactful offensively, and by the time the series got down to the wire, the Thunder were without Williams and Ajay Mitchell to make up for it. Holmgren wasn’t as impactful as a defender either, but that goes for most players tasked with stopping Wemby. Although the WCF was a seven-game thriller, the Spurs had Oklahoma City’s number last year. Should we be in for the second round of the NBA’s best new rivalry this season, the Thunder will need more from Holmgren to get back to the Finals.

Jonathan Kuminga, Minnesota Timberwolves

Two Timberwolves make the list. Kuminga turned down bigger offers to join Minnesota on what’s essentially a prove-it deal. He’ll make $6.1 million this season with the opportunity to become a free agent once again next summer or pick up a $6.4 million player option to run it back one more year with the Wolves.

He had a three-year offer at $12 million annually to join the Lakers, which he turned down for the shorter term opportunity in Minnesota. Presumably, Kuminga wants to prove he’s worth more than that a year from now, which makes this season critical. He’ll get a great opportunity to start on a Western Conference contender, but you there may not be a ton of shots to go around in an offense centered around Edwards and Ball. The Wolves did need help, though, with the departure of Naz Reid in the Ball trade plus Donte DiVincenzo’s injury.

Kuminga was impactful in his brief stint with the Hawks when available, but he’s still yet to prove he’s worth the contract he hopes for.

Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets

As the Hornets shifted to a new direction by trading away Ball and Miles Bridges, Miller has to prove he’s a capable first option. Kon Knueppel is there, too, but he needs a primary scorer to play off of. Coby White is back to facilitate, but Miller is Charlotte’s top option as the roster currently stands.

Miller, the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft, is eligible to receive a rookie contract extension. He’s yet to come to terms on a new deal, though. An extension could happen before the season but either way, he has to prove that he’s a worthwhile star that can take the Hornets to the playoffs and eventually further. He may not do so immediately, but he has to show the front office that he can score in bunches at the top of opponent’s scouting reports each game.

Charlotte is set up well for the future, but an All-Star leap for Miller in his fourth year would make the front office’s job a whole lot easier.

Ja Morant, Portland Trail Blazers

Is a Ja-naissance in store?

This season will, finally, bring Morant in a much-needed new situation after a messy breakup and a bevy of issues from the end of his tenure with the Grizzlies. Portland brings a fresh start that could do wonders for his career, but he has a lot to prove to get back to star status. Morant enters a crowded Trail Blazers backcourt with Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson. Shaedon Sharpe’s unfortunate injury gives new coach Micah Nori some time to figure out his ideal rotation.

Morant’s health issues over the last three seasons are something to monitor. He should be on the court more than we’ve seen in recent years. He has two years left on his current contract and he needs to prove that he can make an impact and help steer the ship on a winning team moving forward. That may be challenging immediately in Portland should he start next to Lillard as the Blazers will have to keep up defensively. A return of the Morant that we saw three-plus seasons ago in Memphis is exciting, though. If he plays freely and gets back to his prior self, Portland’s buy-low opportunity could pay off massively.

Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks

The defending champs and their star big man have yet to come to terms on a contract extension, which he became eligible for this summer. It appears that Towns will go into the season without a new deal as he’s willing to give the team somewhat of a discount, as long as the money aligns with his contributions since he arrived in New York two years ago.

“It don’t look good,” Towns said this week on extension talks. “... Simply put, I want to do something that can keep the team together and work with the Knicks and also values me. None of those things have come close to happening.”

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If Towns has another All-Star season and the Knicks repeat, it would be incredibly difficult for the team to brush off an offer that keeps him happy. If he takes a step back, the team’s $45 million to $50 million range for an offer, which was reported by The Athletic, could dip lower. As the roster gets increasingly expensive with a payday for Jalen Brunson on the horizon, Towns is the Knicks’ first big problem in keeping their championship roster together. Another season with Towns masterfully complementing Brunson with wins piling up would make the financial burden palatable, especially as the team desperately tries to avoid the second apron.

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

After everything Wembanyama and the Spurs proved last season, expectations are extremely high. Wemby is a preseason front-runner for MVP while San Antonio appears primed to get over the hump and make a run at the title.

That’s pressure.

If anyone’s built to handle that, it’s Wemby. He’s absolutely incredible and wows us all each time he steps on a basketball court. With MVP and championship expectations, though, anything less could feel like a failure. If the Spurs disappoint, there’s a very real chance it’s not on Wemby. He could do what he does while his supporting cast falters, which could force the front office into some tough decisions.

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At the end of the day, however, Wemby’s the guy with an incredible amount on his shoulders. There’s a strong chance that he scores more, shoots better from three and rights the wrongs of last years showing in the Finals, but you can’t ignore the immense pressure on the 22-year-old phenom.

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