What Would the Raptors' Failure to Land Kawhi Leonard Mean for Toronto?

The Kawhi Leonard trade to the Toronto Raptors is expected to happen, but the longer it remains unofficial, the harder it is to ignore the possibility that the blockbuster deal could still fall apart.

Apr 8, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) reacts after a missed basket in the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Kawhi Leonard trade between the Los Angeles Clippers and Toronto Raptors is supposed to be nearing the finish line, but instead, it is still in limbo.

The NBA completed its investigation into the Clippers and handed out a hefty punishment. The magnitude of the penalty has led to speculation that the Raptors could change their offer for Leonard, although there have been no official reports one way or another. There has been no indication from either team that the deal will not go through, but the situation has become increasingly complicated over the past week.

However, after everything that has happened, there is one question that is floating around every NBA fan's mind: Could the Kawhi Leonard trade still fall apart? And what would it mean for Toronto if it does?

The Raptors' Entire Plan Would Change

Apr 26, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Brandon Ingram (3) is greeted by center Jakob Poeltl (19) after sinking a three point basket at the end of the first half against the Cleveland Cavaliers during game four of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The biggest consequence of the deal falling through would arguably not be missing out on Leonard himself. But rather, the Raptors would have spent an entire offseason building a team around Leonard, just for him to end up suiting up for a different team.

Additionally, Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick would presumably remain a part of the picture while the Raptors figure out how to move forward with the direction of the team.

Outside of the Leonard deal, the Raptors' only notable moves outside of the NBA Draft were the signing of veteran forward Kyle Anderson and signing Trey Jemison to a two-way deal. With around six weeks to go until opening night, the Raptors would have to decide if they have enough star power to remain a contender in the East with their current roster.

Toronto's Contender Status Would Take a Hit

Feb 8, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic looks on from the sideline against the Indiana Pacers at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When the Leonard trade was first reported, the Raptors were immediately thrust into the conversation about which teams could compete with the defending champion New York Knicks. The Raptors were the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference last year, but had a disappointing end to the season after a game seven loss in the first round against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Raptors will still be a good team, as they are largely returning the same team from last year, minus Sandro Mamukelashvilli, who signed with the Los Angeles Lakers this offseason. However, there is a huge difference between looking to build off of a 46-win season with largely the same roster as last year and adding a true superstar in Leonard to pair with Scottie Barnes.

Scottie Barnes Would Become Even More Important

Apr 29, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) brings the ball up court against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first quarter of game five of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the trade fails to go through, there would be significantly more pressure on Scottie Barnes. With Leonard, Barnes would be the number two option alongside a player who has already won two championships with two different teams and is still playing at a high level on both ends of the floor.

Without Leonard, things would be the same as last season, where Toronto is relying on Barnes to become a franchise cornerstone who can be a leader alongside RJ Barrett and Brandon Ingram.

That opportunity might be good for Barnes' development, but it is also a huge gamble for the Raptors. Their ceiling will be directly correlated to Barnes' ceiling as a player, and Toronto will go as far as he can take them.

The Raptors would then be tasked with deciding if they want to pursue another major move, ride it out with Barnes and the rest of their young core, or find a middle ground between the two.

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