After Free Agency, the Rockets Belong in Which Tier in the NBA's West?

Houston has the depth and talent to compete for a top-four seed, but finishing fifth in the loaded Western Conference remains the most realistic expectation.

May 1, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets head coach Ime Udoka prior to game six of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Los Angeles Lakers at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Houston Rockets had a disappointing season last year, and it's easy to see why. Injuries derailed their season, but this next season they have legitimate playoff expectations in a very competitive Western Conference. If I had to tier the Western Conference, I would realistically place the Rockets in tier two. The tier one teams consist of the true title contenders and the top four seeds.

Teams Likely in Tier 1

Oklahoma City Thunder

San Antonio Spurs

Denver Nuggets

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Rockets should be just below that group entering next season. I project that the Rockets will most likely be around the fifth seed once again, but I can see them being as high as the third or fourth seed also.

Continuity Matters for the Rockets

May 1, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) and Houston Rockets guard Fred VanVleet (5) sit on the bench against the Los Angeles Lakers during the third quarter of game six of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Rockets have minimally upgraded their roster thus far, but continuity is not always a bad thing. In fact, I believe that continuity will be their biggest strength. The Rockets will return most of their young core, which helped them earn a top 5 seed last season.

Fred VanVleet is expected to be ready for opening night. He missed the entire season with an ACL injury, and the Rockets missed him dearly. With him back at the starting helm, he will provide leadership and championship experience. The Rockets needed a point guard last season who could organize the offense and set up Sengun and Durant, but they were too shorthanded.

If VanVleet can remain healthy, that alone should help the Rockets remain one of the top 6 playoff teams in the Western Conference.  Steven Adams will also return next season, and his impact will be very important for the Rockets frontcourt. Adams is one of the best offensive rebounding centers in the entire NBA, so his presence will create a ton of second-chance opportunities for Houston.

Marcus Smart Adds Another Dimension

The Rockets struggled mightily last year after they lost Fred VanVleet to his ACL injury. The Rockets made a very underrated move by bringing in Marcus Smart to back up VanVleet. Smart is a solid veteran, and even though he is no longer the same type of defender that he once was in his prime, he still brings toughness and defensive versatility.

He will be reuniting with his former head coach, Ime Udoka, which will also strengthen their continuity. Smart is a nice secondary ball-handler, and he is an underrated passer and playmaker. Smart's arrival also strengthens Houston's depth, something every contender needs in a conference where injuries often determine playoff positioning.

Young Core Still Improving

The Rockets also have one of the NBA's most intriguing young cores. I’m very bullish on Amen Thompson and his potential to become a superstar. He has continued to develop into one of basketball's premier two-way wings and could take another leap in his fourth season. Alperen Sengun made his first All-Star appearance last season, and he will remain one of their offensive focal points. Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard all have room to improve.

If even one or two of those young players make another significant jump, Houston could absolutely finish third or fourth in the standings.