History on Rockets’ Side for First Round of NBA Playoffs

History has favored the West’s No. 2 seed in the first round.

Apr 13, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets forward Amen Thompson (1) reacts while playing against the Denver Nuggets in the second quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Having clinched the No. 2 seed long ago, the Houston Rockets will be watching Tuesday’s Play-In game between the Grizzlies and Warriors closely.

The winner will earn an auto-bid as the West’s No. 7 seed, and will face off against Houston in the first round of the Playoffs. 

Objectively, the Rockets are likely hoping for a Grizzlies win, as they’ve been the lesser of the two teams recently, and the Warriors have had Houston’s number of the better part of a decade. But history is on the side of the Rockets for then first round, no matter their opponent.

Only once in the last 14 years has a Western Conference second-seed lost in the first round: the Grizzlies losing to the seventh-best Lakers just two seasons ago. In that same span, only two series have gone to seven games, both leaning in favor of the two-seeds.

Of course, most of those haven’t been as young as the current iteration of the Rockets. But they’ve still been one of the better and most consistent teams so far this season.

In truth, the Rockets do have some striking similarities to the young, second-seeded Grizzlies that pushed their way to the front of the West seasons ago with hunger and fresh legs. But they also have plenty of veteran play in Fred VanVleet, an older Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams and plenty more.

For now, Houston will wait with bated breath for their first round opponent. The Warriors and Grizzlies tip off at 9 p.m. CT on Tuesday, April 15.