Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds, Players to Watch for NBA Summer League

Thursday’s NBA Summer League action kicks off with the Dallas Mavericks (1-2) taking on a winless Oklahoma City Thunder team for the final game before consolation/semifinal action on Friday and this weekend.

Both of these teams are out of the running for a top-four spot in Las Vegas, and Dallas will play again on Friday against the New York Knicks.

It’s possible that Morez Johnson – Dallas’ first-round pick – won’t play in either of these games, as he’s dealing with some calf soreness that forced him out of the team’s win over Memphis earlier in the week.

It’s surprising that OKC has yet to win a game in Las Vegas, as it has two first-round picks – Aday Mara and Bennett Stritz – as well as a two-way player from last season’s team in Brooks Barnhizer on the roster. Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as favorites in this game after a close loss to Denver on Tuesday.

Betting on Summer League is a risky proposition, as teams are prioritizing development and have different rotations on a night-to-night basis. I enjoy using the betting odds to see the general perception around some of these young cores, but it is tough to gain an advantage in this market.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Thursday’s Western Conference battle.

Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mavs +1.5 (-110)
Thunder -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Mavs: +105
Thunder: -125

Total

180.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mavericks vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 16
Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Thomas & Mack Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Mavs record: 1-2
Thunder record: 0-3

Mavericks vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Thunder Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Mavericks vs. Thunder Key Player to Watch

Aday Mara, Center, Thunder

Through three Summer League games, Mara is averaging 8.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.0 block per game.

The former Michigan star may not get immediate minutes for an OKC team that is looking to compete for a title in the 2026-27 season, but he figures to be a long-term piece in this OKC frontcout.

Mara is coming off his best game on Tuesday in a loss to Denver, scoring 14 points on 6-of-6 shooting while also dishing out six assists.

Aday Mara tonight

14 PTS
6-6 FG
7 REB
6 AST
+3 pic.twitter.com/M5wE9uYsm6
— Brandon Rahbar (@BrandonRahbar) July 15, 2026

The rookie is an impressive passer for such a young big man, and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against Dallas, which drafted his college teammate Morez Johnson ahead of him in the first round.

Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

These teams have played very similar schedules, as both squads lost to the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers to open their action in Vegas.

OKC recently played a close game against Denver, losing 106-103 while the Mavs beat Memphis – with Cameron Boozer in action – in their last game.

Johnson’s calf injury is a concern for his status the rest of the summer, and the Mavs likely aren’t going to push him to play in a meaningless matchup and risk his long-term health.

While both of these teams lost badly to Golden State and Los Angeles, I thought both Mara and Stirtz (22 points against Denver) took a step forward in their last game.

Dallas seemed to have shut down most of its NBA-level players for the Memphis win, and I’m not sold on the Mavs picking up a victory on Thursday if Johnson is out.

I’ll take OKC to avoid a 0-4 mark in Las Vegas, especially if Mara and Stirtz take the floor.

Pick: Thunder Moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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