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Playoff Path and History: Stakes for Spurs on Final Day of Regular Season

San Antonio might secure an easier road to the NBA Finals, they could set an NBA record, and they will learn more about who they could face in the first round of the postseason.
Apr 4, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) listens to head coach Mitch Johnson in the fourth quarter against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Apr 4, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) listens to head coach Mitch Johnson in the fourth quarter against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

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SAN ANTONIO - Even though they've been locked into the No.2 seed in the Western Conference for a while, the San Antonio Spurs still have plenty to play for and a lot at stake on the final day of the regular season.

A win over the shorthanded Nuggets could help secure an easier path to the Finals, there's an NBA record to be had, and by the end of the night we'll know which two teams will have a shot at facing the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs.

Why Spurs Want to Win (And Nuggets Probably Want to Lose)

The Denver Nuggets are currently third in the West, but if they lose in San Antonio and the Lakers beat a tanking Utah Jazz team Los Angeles will overtake them for the No. 3 seed. Denver is looking at a path to the Finals that runs through both San Antonio and Oklahoma City in one order or the other. Based on the fact that they're resting almost their entire rotation Sunday night, it seems the Nuggets would rather face the Rockets instead of the Timberwolves in the first round.

That's good news for the Spurs, who can send Denver to Oklahoma City's side of the bracket with a win. That means instead of a potential second-round series with a Nuggets team that most agree is a true title contender, San Antonio can throw that extremely high hurdle to the title-favorite Thunder and force those two heavyweights to duke it out for seven games before the Spurs would potentially meet the winner in the Western Conference Finals.

In the second round, San Antonio would face the winner between the Timberwolves and the Lakers, who are hoping to get Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves back soon. Even if Victor Wembanyama doesn't play, the Spurs should be able to secure the win. They will have home-court advantage over every team except the Thunder when the postseason begins.

Who Will Spurs Play in First Round?

The Phoenix Suns will host the 7/8 Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday, with the winner becoming the No.7 seed and heading to San Antonio for the first round. Two teams have a chance of traveling to Phoenix for that game, and right now one of them has a clear edge.

The Portland Trail Blazers hold the tiebreaker over the Los Angeles Clippers, and if the Blazers beat the bottom-dwelling Kings tonight they'll secure the No. 8 seed. The Clippers would need a Portland loss and a win over the Warriors, and they're resting Kawhi Leonard in that game.

If the Spurs could pick a winner for that game, the young Blazers would probably be preferable. Phoenix has a lot of experience on the roster, and they're one of the only teams in the league to beat San Antonio twice this year. They handed the Spurs their first loss of the season behind amazing defense that made Victor Wembanyama look human, but he and the Spurs have grown a lot since then.

How Can the Spurs Make History?

The Spurs can be the first team in NBA history with eight players averaging 10 points or more per game for a whole season, but they'll need a big scoring game from their most selfless player. Harrison Barnes has sacrificed more than anyone this year for the greater good of the Spurs, and if he scores 17 points against the depleted Nuggets he'll hit the mark.

Speaking of consistency and availability, Keldon Johnson and Julian Champagnie will both make it 82 out of 82 when they take the floor.

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Tom Petrini
TOM PETRINI

Tom Petrini has covered Spurs basketball for the last decade, first for Project Spurs and then for KENS 5 in San Antonio. After leaving the newsroom he co-founded the Silver and Black Coffee Hour, a weekly podcast where he catches up on Spurs news with friends Aaron Blackerby and Zach Montana. Tom lives in Austin with his partner Jess and their dogs Dottie and Guppy. His other interests include motorsports and making a nice marinara sauce.

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