Data, Betting Trends for Suns-Magic
PHOENIX - The Phoenix Suns continue their road trip against the Orlando Magic in just a few hours.
Picks for tonight's action:
Game Pick: Suns-Magic UNDER 227.5 (.75 Unit)
The Suns travel to Orlando looking to regroup after a brutal loss to the Indiana Pacers in a game that featured a 17-point lead and 62 points from Devin Booker.
Phoenix played at the highest pace of their entire season against Indiana and allowed 133 points. Orlando does the exact opposite of that.
The Magic's last six games have had an average pace of 90.3. For reference, the slowest team in the league has a pace of 96.2. The Magic have also struggled offensively, failing to reach 110 points in regulation since Jan. 5th.
After playing the fastest game of their season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Suns play a more controlled game that is played at their regular pace, which is closer to the 96.9 we saw in these teams' first matchup.
Add in the possibility of Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic resting their injuries today to be healthier for their game tomorrow, and it becomes an uphill battle for the Suns.
Trend of the Game Pick: Suns -1.5 (.5 Unit)
via KillerSports.com
First things first, this line stinks. It has dropped from Phoenix -3.5 to -1.5 despite the Magic losing seven of their last nine games. However, the Suns have proven to be very productive on the road as small favorites.
Phoenix was dominated in the paint by Indiana in their previous game, putting them in this spot. As road favorites, after allowing 49+ points in the paint in the previous game, the Suns are 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS.
The Magic are much less capable from the three-point line than Indiana, meaning the Suns can focus on defending that area.
Unless this line flips, the Suns will be road favorites again despite yesterday's loss. As away favorites, after a loss, Phoenix is 4-0 SU and ATS since Kevin Durant was brought in.
Other Trends/Notes:
- Phoenix is 7-1-1 ATS as away favorites of -5.5 or less and the total is less than 237
- Suns on the first leg of a back-to-back are 7-1 ATS and 8-0 SU as away favorites with Devin Booker playing
- Orlando is 16-7-1 ATS as home underdogs against a team they previously lost to
Player Prop: Kevin Durant OVER 4.5 Rebounds + Wendell Carter Jr OVER 0.5 Threes (.5 Unit)
Back to the well with Durant as he's cleared this number in nine straight and the possible loss of Nurkic only makes rebounding that more important.
Orlando also allows the ninth-most rebounds to power forwards.
Wendell Carter Jr. has been a flamethrower since his return from injury. He has made at least one three and is shooting 8/14 (57%) from three in those six games.
The Suns are middle of the pack defensively in stopping big men from making the three ball - but if Orlando wants an impact from downtown tonight - Carter will have to fire at least three attempts.
ESPN Bet (-109), DraftKings (-130)
