Three Bets to Make for Suns-Mavericks Game 7

All the marbles are on the line in Sunday's Game 7. Here's three prop bets you should consider taking.

Author:
Logan Bell
May 15, 2022 11:00 AM EDT

In this story:

Phoenix Suns

Dallas Mavericks

After a tough series between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks, we have reached a conclusion.

Game 7 at the Footprint Center will see either team advance to the Western Conference Finals to take on the Golden State Warriors, with that series beginning on Wednesday.

Yet the Suns and Mavericks still have a minimum of 48 minutes to battle once more, and this time, all the marbles are on the line.

After initially going up 2-0 in the series, the Suns have fallen short in their efforts to close out the Mavericks and advance to the next round.

All eyes of the basketball world will be on players such as Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Luka Doncic to see who will etch their name in the latest chapter of the NBA playoffs.

That includes the sportsbooks, as plenty of money will be won/lost come Sunday evening.

For perhaps the last time this postseason, here's some prop bets to consider in tonight's Game 7:

*Note: Odds are accurate and updated as on early Sunday morning. These are subject to change throughout the day*

Three Bets to Make for Suns-Mavericks Game 7

There wouldn’t be a more welcoming sight for Suns fans than a bounce-back game from the struggling Chris Paul. What has gone from whispers about his recent production have turned into shouting matches after another underwhelming showing in Game 6.

There would be no greater redemption arc in this movie than a monster Game 7 performance to advance Phoenix to the Western Conference Finals. However, it’ll have to wait for quarters 2-4 as Paul has been historically low scoring in nearly every first quarter in home playoff games since joining the Suns. We’ll ride that trend here.

Chris Paul UNDER 3.5 First Quarter Points (FanDuel -140)

Paul is UNDER 3.5 1Q points in 14 of 14 home playoff games as a Sun with Devin Booker in the line-up
-Has attempted 1, 2, 0, 1 and 0 field goals in the 5 first quarters of this series
-Paul feeds Booker and Ayton before exiting with 8 minutes played

Dallas will not let Paul get to his spots and let him beat them
-In his last 4 games, 13 of his 28 shot attempts have been three pointers
-Shot 22 times in the mid-range and paint in Games 1 and 2
-15 total attempts since (3.8 per game)

Thus far, the Suns’ offense on the road and at home have been polar opposites. At home, they look like… well, the Suns. They’re under control, move the ball confidently and hit the shots we’ve seen them make time and time again. On the road, they have been careless with the ball and have strayed away from the basic concepts of their scheme.

Luckily, the Suns return home to the Valley for this critical series decider. Despite the allure of a physical, defensively dominated Game 7, the offense won’t be an issue.

Phoenix Suns OVER 105.5 Points (FanDuel -118)

Phoenix is posting a massive 128.4 offensive rating at home this series
-129, 121, 110 points scored
-Only 102.2 offensive rating on the road

OVER in last 9 home playoff games dating back to 2021 NBA Finals
-Over in 13 of last 15 home playoff games
-Nerves in second round of playoffs don’t compare to NBA Finals

118, 118, and 119 at home in Finals

Suns went OVER in 35 of 36 home game since December
-6/6 in home playoff games this year

All 109+ points scored

In a game where the Mavericks poured in another 16 threes and shot 41% from beyond the arc, Doncic continued to struggle from deep. Doncic spoke on his patented step-back three before Thursday’s game, stating that he needed to continue to trust and utilize it. However, Doncic only attempted one three in the second half of Game 6 after missing five-of-seven in the first half.

Now, after two days of rest, we incorporate another poor career and season tendency into what had already been a shooting struggle for Doncic since Game 2.

Luka Doncic UNDER 3.5 Three Point Field Goals (FanDuel -113)

We are going back to the well after a 2/8 shooting performance
-Only 1 three-point attempt in second half

Doncic is UNDER in last 4 games this series
-Has made 2, 1, 2, and 2
-Shooting 7/33 (21.2%) from three in last 4 games

UNDER 3.5 threes in 15 of 18 matchups vs Phoenix

Shooting 31.9% on threes with 2 days of rest this season
-27.5% in career

Matchup hunting for smaller defenders to drive past and back down
-Appeared to be more aggressive with drives in Game 6, where he is shooting 61.8% in the restricted area and paint

Doncic is now 4/17 (23.5%) on threes when guarded by Deandre Ayton
-6/21 (25%) when guarded by Ayton or Biyombo
-Better off driving past them where there is no rim protection