Data-Driven Betting Picks for Suns vs Jazz
Pick of the Game: Jazz +6.5 (1 Unit)
via KillerSports.com
Quietly, the Utah Jazz have been one of the more exciting teams in the league over the last two months, and especially as of late. Their last two games were statement wins at home over the Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Utah is one of the top rebounding units in the league, ranking third in total rebounds and offensive rebounds per 100 possessions. Their offense has also been rolling as of late.
Over the last 15 games, they have the second-highest offensive rating overall (125.8) and a top-nine road rating (118.2). Led by Will Hardy's coaching, the Jazz have gone 17-7 over their last 24 games after a slow start to the season.
Since Hardy arrived in Salt Lake City in 2022, the Jazz have been covering machines against the spread. He is 58% ATS overall and a monstrous 63.5% ATS as an underdog.
More specifically, the Jazz are 10-1 ATS as underdogs coming off a win as an underdog and the total is 231.5 or higher, including nine outright wins!
With Bradley Beal and Devin Booker questionable for tonight, this is two or three points too many if either one of them were to miss the game.
ESPNBET +6.5 (-115), BetMGM (-105)
Other Trends/Notes:
- The Suns are 2-15 ATS as -4 favorites or more against opponents who shoot 39% or higher of their shots from three since 2022
- The over is 20-9 in Jazz games as road dogs and they covered their prior game (18-11 ATS)
- Utah is 22-7 ATS as underdogs off a cover as underdogs and the total is 226.5+
- Since 2020, the over is 23-6 in Suns games where they are favorites with a total of 225+ and at least a day of rest, off an under as a favorite
Player Prop: Lauri Markkanen OVER 19.5 Points + Kris Dunn UNDER 6.5 Assists (.5 Unit)
One of the most underrated players in the league is Lauri Markkanen. The Arizona Wildcat alum is near the top in efficiency with a shot chart as green as a forest.
In his 42 games, he has cleared this in 31 (74%) of them and with a total north of 240, there should be plenty of scoring. When he plays at least 28.5 minutes, he has crossed 20 points in 30 of the 32 games.
Kris Dunn's game is all about defense and effort. He isn't the lead guard or main ball handler like Collin Sexton is for this team. Dunn has broken 6.5 assists seven times this season in 44 games.
However, three of those have come when he received 27 minutes or more. Over his last 20 contests, he has been closer to 20 minutes per game and under this number in 18 of those games.
ESPNBET (-114)
