Three Christmas Day Bets for Suns-Mavericks

PHOENIX -- The Phoenix Suns host the Dallas Mavericks in the final of a long NBA Christmas Day slate, with opening tip coming just past 8:30 PM local time in the desert.

Here's three bets we like from across the web:

Covers.com: Luka Doncic Over 34.5 PTS

Douglas Farmer: "In 11 games without Kyrie Irving this season — sidelined since Dec. 8 with a bruised heel — Luka Doncic has scored 35+ points in seven of them, including four of his last five and five of the seven games during this specific stretch.

"Those kinds of outputs are in Luka’s nature, and they are Dallas’s best path to staying in the mix in the West.

"Luka should have plenty of scoring chances against the Suns, ranking No. 13 in team defensive rating since Dec. 1, and without a perimeter stopper capable of hanging with Doncic.

"Booker and Gordon play hard, but neither is a defensive ace. Relying entirely on Josh Okogie may clog up the court for Booker’s and Durant’s offensive playmaking."

Action Network: Total Over 237.5 PTS

Chris Baker: "I like the over a lot here without Nurkic and with Lively questionable. I went through just how bad the Suns defense has been without Nurkic, and I expect them to struggle to keep Luka away from the rim with him out. Even if Lively goes his impact should be slightly muted as the Suns are heavily reliant on jumpshooting and don’t have many guys who like to attack the rim.

"Additionally, this Mavericks defense might be overrated as they have played the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses this year. Despite that easy schedule they still rank just 23rd in defensive rating. The Mavs offense might actually be underrated as they’ve played the fourth toughest schedule of opposing defenses this year and still rank ninth in offensive rating despite missing Kyrie Irving for most of the season. These schedule quirks are just little things to add to my further conviction for the over here. I’m taking over 237.5 but would be willing to play this up to 240."

DraftKings: Drew Eubanks Over 6.5 Rebounds

Benjamin Zweiman: "This is an alternate line on DraftKings Sportsbook and has less value than the two above. But it should be pretty safe given the Suns won’t have Nurkic and may need to use Eubanks for more minutes inside. We also can’t get any props on Azubuike, which would have been nice. There are also some interesting first quarter rebounding props. Kevin Durant O2.5 rebounds in the first at -115 feels decent.

"There’s a chance KD stays in for all of the first quarter and starts the second with the second unit before getting a breather. If Eubanks can stay out of foul trouble, that is also a plus. If Lively ends up sitting for the Mavericks, they’d also be super thin in the frontcourt, which would be a big boost for Eubanks’ props."