Insider Predicts Suns to Exceed Projected Win Total for 2025-26 Season

The Suns could be a difficult matchup for teams with their new look.

Sep 24, 2025; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1), forward Dillon Brooks (3) and guard Jalen Green (4) pose for portrait during Media Day at PHX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

PHOENIX -- The Phoenix Suns enter the 2025-26 season with low expectations after making several changes to the roster this offseason.

However, because of this, there is a chance for the Suns to be a surprise team with their new look under a new coach in Jordan Ott.

Still, most don't think Phoenix has the talent to match up with the rest of the teams in a loaded Western Conference after trading away Kevin Durant and buying out Bradley Beal this offseason.

ESPN Thinks Suns Will Exceed Win Projection

After winning 36 games last season and with all the changes in the offseason, most betting sites have the Suns' over/under win total at 31.5 heading into the season.

ESPN's Kevin Pelton used a stat-based projection to forecast whether the Suns would do better than this win total, and it came out to 34.7 wins, which was good for 13th in the West with only the New Orleans Pelicans (32.6 wins) and Utah Jazz (20.2 wins) lower.

"I get the logic that Phoenix won 36 games last season then subtracted Kevin Durant," Pelton wrote. "However, the Suns were probably due for some degree of bounce-back after underperforming their projections a season ago, and Durant's value at this stage of his career is likely overstated.

"It's also worth remembering that Phoenix will have no incentive to accumulate losses late in the season because the team's draft pick has been swapped to the point of irrelevance."

Pelton explained how his stats-based model works for projecting wins:

"To project teams, I start with player ratings based on a combination of my SCHOENE stats-based projections and luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) provided by Krishna Narsu that covers the past three seasons. For each team, I project games played based on those missed to injury over the past three years and current absences then subjectively guess at the distribution of playing time."

The Western Conference looks like it will be very crowded once again, so the Suns will have to establish themselves as a tough team to play against if they want to make any noise.

As Pelton pointed out, if Phoenix is out of the playoff picture, it still has no incentive to lose because it does not have first-round pick next summer after trading it away to the Charlotte Hornets as part of the package of sending off Jusuf Nurkic in January.

Still, the Suns might play their rookies and younger players more if they get to this point.

Owner Mat Ishbia has said that this season is about setting a foundation of being "successful going forward from a perspective of identity, vision, culture and something that fans be proud of."

This might not lead to more wins right away, but the Suns do have a chance to play off this new identity and be a difficult matchup for opponents.