3-Point Shooting Volume Could Help Shape Thunder-Suns Series

There should be no shortage of shots from beyond the arc.

Jan 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Cason Wallace (22) at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Oklahoma City is set for a first-round matchup against the Phoenix Suns, and outside shooting could be a massive factor.

Going into Game 1 on Sunday, the Thunder have spent the past week or so resting and awaiting their first-round opponent. With the Suns' win on Friday night to punch their ticket to the playoffs, both teams can begin giving their full attention to one another.

While there is a bit of a crunch on time to find the exact areas to look out for, it’s impossible to look past how the 3-point shot should impact this series. While both teams are just slightly above league average in terms of 3-point percentage, both shooting just over 36%, 3-point volume creates a bit more separation.

During the regular season, the Suns ranked fifth in 3-point attempts per game, while the Thunder ranked 15th. While that actually only pans out to a difference of about three 3-point attempts a night, the Suns also rank seventh in 3-point attempt rate, whereas the Thunder are 13th.

Looking at the matchup as a whole, the 3-point shot will need to be the great equalizer for the Suns to have a chance. Considering the net rating difference between Oklahoma City and Phoenix is the same as the difference between Phoenix and Utah, this series is far from a level playing field.

However, 3-point shooting variance has been the key to upsets, or for the series, the key to a competitive first round. While the Suns put up only 25 outside shots in their play-in loss to Portland, they changed course entirely with a 49-attempt night against Golden State to earn the 8 seed.

Considering the Thunder are also among the top teams in the league in allowing 3-point attempts, the Suns should be able to get looks from three. Of course, the Thunder also have one of the best defenses in recent history, so those looks won’t always be the ones Phoenix is actually looking to generate.

Nonetheless, the Suns will need to shoot an abundance of threes to keep themselves in this series and avoid the fate of the past two Thunder opponents. Of course, even some hot shooting nights by Phoenix may not matter if Oklahoma City’s postseason shooting fortunes are different this time around. 

The 3-point shot will have the potential to swing just about every series in the postseason, and the Suns will be looking to maximize their possessions against the Thunder with shots from beyond the arc.