OKC Thunder Had Correct Strategy Against Mavericks, But the Results Didn’t Show It

Basketball is a game of timing. It has always been that way. It’s supremely important to play your best basketball and get hot in the playoffs. Shooting variance plays a massive part in a deep playoff run. A cold shooting slump could cost a team the chance of advancing further, and a hot stretch could propel a team forward. In Oklahoma City’s case, both of those things happened and it worked in Dallas’ favor.

The Thunder found a way to limit Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic as best they could. Of course, both superstars will always have good games and get their own, but Oklahoma City’s defensive attack found a way to slow them down. The Thunder didn’t lose because Irving and Doncic went nuclear — the Thunder lost because the Mavericks role players made a massive difference.

In the conference semifinals, the Thunder dared PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. to beat them. And that’s exactly what happened. In the NBA Finals, though, regression to the mean has taken place. It was a solid strategy that the Thunder displayed, but proved to be an unlucky one.

In 44 games with the Hornets this season, Washington shot 32.4% from 3-point range. In 29 regular season games with the Mavericks, he shot 31.4%. In the first round, Western Conference Finals, and the NBA Finals, Washington is shooting 28.2% from long range. Against Oklahoma City, though, he shot 46.9%. He killed the Thunder all series long and ended up being the X Factor for Dallas. Granted, the Thunder certainly left Washington too wide open at times and paid the price, but he hasn’t been nearly the same player since the series against Oklahoma City.

Jones Jr. scored over 15 points against the Thunder in three of the six conference semifinal games. In the eight games played since Game 6, he hasn’t scored over 15 points a single time. He’s averaging 6.0 points per game and has shot just 1-of-6 from 3-point range.

The Thunder planned to slow down Doncic and Irving and force the Mavericks role players to step up. Against Oklahoma City, that’s exactly what they did — and it’s what gave them the upper hand. Taking the full sample size of the playoffs though, that was still the smart move for the Thunder — it just didn’t pay off this time. Both Jones Jr. and Washington have struggled mightily against Boston, and it would appear that’s what the Thunder staff envisioned.

Even when they weren’t left wide open, they still managed to hit difficult shots and look like impact players against the Thunder. But both players got hot at the right time and elevated Dallas as a team. It’s what allowed the Mavericks a Finals berth. Regression to the mean was always bound to happen at some point, though, and now it’s happening on the biggest stage.

Doncic and Irving have had exceptional performances, but Dallas is still down 3-0 and on the verge of getting swept. Oklahoma City’s strategy was a good one, and the data backs it up, but the ball simply didn’t bounce the Thunder’s way.

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