OKC Thunder's 3-Point Shooting Could Swing WCF Matchup vs. Spurs

The Thunder will likely get some good looks from beyond the arc, and the season could hinge on whether those shots fall.

Mar 4, 2026; New York, New York, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Alex Caruso (9) shoots the ball against the New York Knicks during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Oklahoma City is looking to make its third trip to the NBA Finals, and its offensive output from beyond the arc could be the deciding factor.

On Monday night, the San Antonio Spurs will be in Paycom Center as the Thunder host Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. After losing the season series 4-1, the Thunder have something to prove against their newest West rival.

As the defending champions, the Thunder know they’re in for a war against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. After both teams fought throughout the season for the No. 1 seed, the Thunder need to take advantage of the home-court they fought so hard to get.

In the postseason, home-court advantage is crucial, but this series may simply hinge on the Thunder’s ability to knock down shots on the perimeter. With such a menacing paint presence in Wembanyama on the other side, it will always be difficult for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and others to find high-percentage looks at the rim when the Spurs star is lurking.

So, to keep Wembanyama honest, the Thunder will need to prove their effectiveness from deep. That extends well beyond the typical shooting stars like Jared McCain or Isaiah Joe. 

Instead, the Thunder will need their defensive stars to also be able to nail the open looks that will inevitably come from Wembanyama hanging around the paint. On Christmas Day, the Thunder suffered through an 11-of-44 performance from deep, highlighted by Alex Caruso’s 2-of-12 afternoon.

While it’s impossible to take too much away from a regular season matchup, the Spurs’ strategy was likely on full display in that game. Gilgeous-Alexander and others will likely see driving lanes quickly close, leading to open looks for the players San Antonio is comfortable leaving open.

So, it will be up to Caruso, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and others to find a rhythm from outside to get the Thunder over the hump. Sure, some extra 3-point looks for the stars would be a nice change of pace for Oklahoma City and could help give the team a boost, but the others will be the ultimate X factor in the shooting game.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City will likely have a similar strategy on the other end. With both teams made up of defensive-minded perimeter players who have some spotty outside shooting, whichever role players can catch fire could take their team to the Finals.

The stars will shine in this Western Conference Finals, but the ultimate measure of this matchup could be whether the shots Gilgeous-Alexander creates for his teammates find the bottom of the net.