OKC Thunder Should See Breakout NBA Playoffs From Chet Holmgren

Chet Holmgren is a three-year NBA veteran. In each of his first three seasons, he has helped lead the Thunder to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, including back-to-back top marks in the entire NBA.

With two playoff runs under his belt, the 2026 NBA Playoffs are set to be a breakout for the Gonzaga product.

In his first NBA Playoff run, after playing in 82 games during his rookie season, Holmgren was pivotal in the team's eventual second-round exit against the Dallas Mavericks. He dominated his minutes on the floor, but Oklahoma City's lack of front-court depth behind Holmgren was exposed and led to the Mavericks bouncing the Thunder out of the NBA Playoffs and eventually winning the Western Conference.

During that Dallas series, Holmgren averaged 15.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 2.3 blocks per game while shooting 51% from the floor, 22% from beyond the arc, and 79% from the charity stripe. In that six-game series, the starting center averaged a +3.2 plus/minus for the series. A great debut playoff run as he followed up his first round set with the New Orleans Pelicans, where he helped the Thunder sweep the Bourbon Street Ballers.

Despite having that NBA Playoff experience, the adversity was not behind Holmgren yet. A year ago, while being the defensive anchor on a title team, he admits to being a step slow as he was still recovering from a fractured hip suffered in November 2024. Somehow, someway, Holmgren not only managed to return that same regular season but help the Thunder win their first NBA championship.

During the 2025 NBA Playoffs, Holmgren averaged 15.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.9 blocks per game while shooting 46% from the floor, 29% from the 3-point line and 78% from the charity stripe while averaging out to a +7.3 in the box score in his 23-game chase to a championship.

Those are remarkable numbers given his lack of separation from that fracture hip.

After a shortened offseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder saw Holmgren return in the 2025-26 campaign as a better player. He made his first All-Star team this February, projects to be included on the third team All-NBA roster and is a lock for first team All-Defense.

He is physically moving better than ever before. When the team has been able to field the playmakers to assist him, Holmgren has been the best play-finishing version of himself as well. Somehow, the big man has improved defensively, being able to not only lock down the paint but also go defend in space and rely on his length to cover ground and recover.

As the Oklahoma City Thunder are attempting to repeat as NBA Champions, becoming the first team to do so since the 2018 Golden State Warriors, it is easy to envision Holmgren having a breakout postseason.

“We’re gonna get a better version of him in this year's playoffs than we've had in previous playoff runs. I also don't think this year will be his best year of basketball in his career. I think he actually has a lot of runway still," OKC Thunder Head Coach Mark Daigneault said confidently at Tuesday's practice.

Daigneault is right, the 23-year-old still has a long runway ahead of him to improve as a player for years to come. He also has the ability to craft a two and a half month statement to the rest of the league that he is one of the NBA's best two-way players.

Holmgren has never shied away from the expectations. His NBA Draft Day suit included a chain with dice dangling on his chest because he was "betting on himself." All he has done since then is win, dominate the defensive end, and improve as a player. The Thunder big man is a safe bet to break out during this NBA Playoff run.

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