OKC Thunder Star's 2027 MVP Chances May Hinge on Securing League's Top Record

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the league's best, but he needs his team to continue to be the best, too.

May 30, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) reacts in the second quarter against the San Antonio Spurs during game seven of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is facing an uphill battle as he looks for a third straight MVP, and one achievement could make or break his case.

Next season, the Oklahoma City Thunder will again be looking to contend for an NBA title after spending the past three seasons as the No. 1 seed in the West. Also earning the league’s top record each of the past two seasons, the Thunder have been a dominant force as of late.

A massive reason for Oklahoma City’s success has been the superstardom of Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder star has secured back-to-back MVPs and will be looking to join some rare air next season with a third.

Of course, with how MVP races have gone in recent history, winning a third straight MVP has been nearly impossible for some of the game’s greatest players. While Gilgeous-Alexander has joined several players this century with consecutive MVPs, his path to winning a third straight will be his toughest yet.

Entering next season, San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama is the favorite to win the award coming off his first NBA Finals appearance. Having defeated Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, Wembanyama certainly has the storyline to overtake the guard as the league’s top regular season performer as well.

Still, with how untouchable Gilgeous-Alexander has been in some areas over the past two years, it’d be hard to imagine anything other than a tight race. If the Thunder guard wants to take home his third straight, it may hinge on his team’s success.

If Wembanyama enters the year as the favorite, puts up big numbers and leads San Antonio to the No. 1 seed in the West, Gilgeous-Alexander’s chances of winning will likely be non-existent. However, if the Thunder star can lead his team to the best record in basketball again, he could have a real shot to win it again, especially if the Thunder can build a sizeable lead above the Spurs.

Getting to around 65 wins will likely be the threshold for Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP chances, and the Spurs could easily be right there with Oklahoma City again. It also wouldn’t hurt for the Thunder to take the head-to-head series this time around and for Gilgeous-Alexander to have some memorable moments in his matchups against Wembanyama, a key piece in his triumphs over Nikola Jokic in the past two years.

Ultimately, Gilgeous-Alexander should be right in the middle of the MVP race again next season, but it will likely come down to team success when the ballots are cast.