3 Reasons the Timberwolves Can Finish as Top-3 Seed In Western Conference

Tim Connelly climbed into the batter’s box this offseason, aiming for the fences. He pointed his bat to left field, then tapped it on each corner of home plate, adjusted his helmet, and locked eyes with the pitcher.

He took a home-run hack by trading for LaMelo Ball.

Right now, that ball is still on its ascent. We won’t know if Connelly deposits this swing into the bleachers for a while. But there is a good chance that it does.

By trading for Ball and now signing Jonathan Kuminga to a two-year deal, Connelly has closed the gap between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the top two teams in the Western Conference, the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

With any swing of this nature, there is obvious risk involved. But I think that after the moves made this summer—both in Minnesota and around the league—the Timberwolves will finish third in the West. And I think they will do so for these three reasons.

No. 1: The new-look offensive firepower

Ball created 17.5 points off his 7.1 assists per game last season, ranking ninth and 11th league-wide, respectively. For reference, Julius Randle—Minnesota’s leading passer last season—created 12.9 points off his five assists per game, ranking 36th and 43rd, respectively.

Replacing Randle’s passing, which was at times very effective but not consistently enough for Minnesota’s offense to reach a dependably high level, with Ball’s elite passing will provide Chris Finch with a steady-humming engine to command his offense.

The type of high-octane engine that he has never had at his disposal.

On a game-to-game basis, Minnesota’s offense should have enough avenues to keep defenses constantly having to adjust to a triad of unique scorers.

Ball will sling passes that nobody sees coming. He will pull up from deep in anyone's face. Kuminga is not a floor spacer, but his above-the-rim athleticism could pair really well alongside Ball's passing.

Edwards will play off of that with one of the NBA’s most lethal isolation skillsets, complete with similarly magical 3-point shooting and a forceful downhill approach. Jaden McDaniels provides an uber-efficient third option who only needs modest shot attempts to average 15 points per game. He can score at the rim or hoist from deep at a 40% clip.

Rudy Gobert is one of the NBA’s greatest screeners. And even though the Wolves have always struggled to keep him involved offensively, his ability to open up Ball, Edwards, and McDaniels on the perimeter with his brickwall screening will further put defenses at a disadvantage.

The last time the Wolves finished with the third seed in 2024, they boasted the NBA’s best defensive rating. This year, I think they land in the same spot with one of the NBA’s best, multi-faceted and dynamic offenses.

No. 2: The versatile nature of the roster

The most discussed weakness with this year's team has centered on their lack of size and how that could harm their defense and rebounding. However, the Wolves addressed the question by bringing in Kuminga.

At 6’7”, Kuminga will give Minnesota’s starting five the versatile, strong defense that it previously lacked. Kuminga has the strength and length to guard power forwards, which will keep McDaniels defending where he has defended at an All-NBA level: on guards and wings. Additionally, Kuminga will help make up for Minnesota’s loss of defensive rebounding ability after dealing Julius Randle and Naz Reid this summer.

It will be paramount that Kuminga buys into defense and rebounding with the Wolves, while focusing on off-ball, complementary offense on the other end. It is completely fair to question how well Kuminga will truly fit with the Wolves. I, too, have my doubts. But I also think that Ball’s passing style, which can extract the best out of literally any offensive talent, can help make up for Kuminga’s lack of shooting.

Regardless of the fit questions right now, the Wolves have bolstered what was a previously diverse roster with a player who is a more than capable scorer and can play fast in transition, which will fit alongside Ayo Dosunmu, Terrence Shannon Jr., Bones Hyland, and Jaylen Clark well, as the six of them can all push the pace in transition readily and forcefully.

Minnesota’s roster features intriguing on-ball scoring, volume scoring and shooting, scrappy defense, and a mix of skill sets that could play well together if deployed correctly. It will be up to Chris Finch to get creative and make everything work. There is a chance that Kuminga just doesn’t fit well in the offense. But there is also a chance that he does, further bolstering the Wolves' well-rounded depth chart.

No. 3: The talent around the Wolves in the West

Ultimately, this Wolves roster is not perfect, even with Kuminga. Much has changed this summer, which means they will need to grind through growing pains during the regular season. Historically, it has been rare for teams to legitimately compete for a championship in their first season after a big acquisition.

That could be the case for the Wolves. However, when surveying the talent around them in the West, I really have a hard time putting many of those teams over them in the standings.

The Spurs and Thunder will be the teams to beat in the West this season. I would be surprised if the Wolves finish ahead of them in the standings, barring injuries to Victor Wembanyama or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

But aside from them, I do think the Wolves have a leg up on the rest of the West playoff competition right now.

The Los Angeles Lakers replaced LeBron James with a haul of new talent, including Walker Kessler, Sandro Mamukilisvili, Quinten Grimes, Collin Sexton, and others. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves will probably lead the greatest threat to the Wolves’ hopes to earn home court in the first round, but LA’s defense is an even greater concern than Minnesota’s.

The Denver Nuggets took another step back by losing Peyton Watson. They will probably be a good regular season team, but not a legit threat in the postseason.

Anthony Edwards Nikola Jokic NBA Timberwolves Nuggets — Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves have fostered a competitive rivalry with the Denver Nuggets over the years. But this season, the Wolves will likely overtake Denver in the standings. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Houston Rockets are getting Fred VanVleet back from injury, but I still have concerns about their offensive ceiling—even with Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun—especially late in games.

The Phoenix Suns will be a scrappy team, but they lack the star power to land high in the standings. The Portland Trail Blazers will be a similarly gritty team, but I am not sure how their bevy of guard depth will fit together. The Utah Jazz will take a significant step forward. But I would be shocked if that still relatively young and inexperienced team gives Minnesota a run for its money should it sit at the top of the standings.

Things can still change between now and the start of the season. Much more will inevitably change before April rolls around. But I don’t think it is too early to claim that the Wolves can finish third in the West. Sure, Connelly’s swing for Ball could end up being a pop out. So could his swing for Kuminga. But for the time being, the swings have this Wolves team on an upward trajectory toward the top of the Western Conference standings.

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