The Wolves' Ideal Playoff Path Isn't as Simple as Climbing the Standings

Anthony Edwards should be back in the starting lineup when the Timberwolves hit the road for three critical games this week.

Edwards, who has missed the past six games with inflammation in his knee, was cleared for full basketball activities on Friday, and while he didn't play in Minnesota's woeful home loss to the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons on Saturday, all signs point to him returning Monday night in Dallas.

The Wolves play three huge games on the road this week: Monday against Dallas, and then a very tough back-to-back Thursday and Friday against the Pistons and Philadelphia 76ers.

Minnesota enters play Sunday in fifth place in the Western Conference playoff race. At 45-29, they're only a half-game ahead of the Houston Rockets (44-29), while trailing the fourth-place Denver Nuggets (47-28) by 1.5 games, and the third-place Los Angeles Lakers (48-26) by three games.

With only eight games remaining, it's going to be very difficult to chase down the Lakers, so Minnesota's most realistic path to home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs is by sneaking past the Nuggets.

Unfortunately, Denver won the regular-season tiebreaker, so the Wolves have to finish with more wins than Denver to secure the fourth seed — and that's where more of the good news/bad news enters the equation.

Bad news: Minnesota plays six of its final eight games on the road.

Good news: Denver still has to play the Spurs twice and Oklahoma City once.

Bad news: The Spurs and Thunder could be resting starters by the time Denver faces them in the final two games of the regular season on April 10 and April 12, respectively.

Good news: Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Ayo Dosunmu aren't dealing with serious injuries, so all three may be back for Minnesota this week after missing Saturday's game.

The Wolves' first-round playoff opponent is almost surely going to be one of the Nuggets, Lakers, or Rockets. If they finish sixth, they're likely going to travel to L.A. for a best-of-seven series against Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, and the Lakers. If they finish fifth, they're probably headed to Denver. If they finish fourth, they're probably hosting Denver. If they somehow rise all the way to third, they're probably welcoming Kevin Durant and the Rockets to Minneapolis.

All of the possibilities are difficult, but Minnesota is a seasoned team with postseason experience. They've gone to back-to-back conference finals, and they've whipped the Nuggets and Lakers in recent playoff runs. Last season, as the No. 6 seed, the Wolves went to Los Angeles and buried the Lakers in five games. In the 2024 playoffs, the Wolves were the No. 3 seed and wound up going to Denver in the second round, where they won Games 6 and 7 to advance.

This year, the winner of the 4-5 matchup is likely headed to Oklahoma City in the second round, while the winner of the 3-6 matchup will undoubtedly face the San Antonio Spurs in Round 2. It's a pick-your-poison situation, but Minnesota, when healthy, has the experience and depth to win a series against any team in the league.

Do they have a preference? They're 3-1 against the Spurs and 2-2 against the Thunder this season, and given the Spurs' lack of playoff experience compared to the defending champion Thunder, a second-round matchup against Victor Wembanyama and San Antonio seems like a better option.

We'll see what happens, but finishing sixth and having to run through the Lakers instead of the Nuggets in the first round wouldn't be the worst outcome, especially if the Timberwolves need to proceed with caution over the final eight games to make sure Edwards, McDaniels, and Dosunmu are as healthy as possible entering the playoffs.