Timberwolves-Nuggets Odds Paint Minnesota as Major Underdogs Again

The Timberwolves find themselves in a familiar position heading into the first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs. They've made the postseason for a fifth consecutive season, and this is the fifth straight year they've been betting underdogs in their opening series.

That's not exactly a surprise, given that the Wolves have been the lower-seeded team in four of the five years. They were obvious underdogs as a play-in team in a 2-7 series against the Grizzlies in 2022 and a 1-8 series against the Nuggets in 2023. Minnesota lost those in six and five games, respectively.

But even in 2024, when the Wolves were the 3 seed, they were slight underdogs against the 6 seed Suns, who they proceeded to sweep in dominant fashion. They weren't favored in the second round against Denver, either, and they went on to win that series in seven. And last year, they were underdogs in the 3-6 matchup against the Lakers, who finished only one game ahead of them in the regular season standings. The Wolves dispatched LA in five games to move on.

Minnesota is 4-4 in playoff series in the Anthony Edwards and Chris Finch era. They've been the underdog six times, going 3-3. The only times they've entered a series as favorites were the 2024 Western Conference Finals (which they lost to the Mavericks in five games) and the 2025 second round against the Steph Curry-less Warriors (which they won in five).

So the fact that the Nuggets are currently -350 betting favorites at DraftKings (and opened at -400 in some places) does not mean the Timberwolves (+280) should be counted out. Those odds reflect the reality that the Nuggets were the clearly the better of the two teams in the regular season, but the nearly 78 percent implied probability of a -350 line feels a bit too high given the Wolves' recent track record in the postseason.

The Denver Nuggets file

The Nuggets went 54-28 this season to finish as the No. 3 seed. It's their eighth straight playoff appearance in the Nikola Jokic era. They've gone 10-6 in playoff series with Jokic, including a 4-0 run when they won the championship in 2023.

This year's Nuggets led the NBA in offensive rating at 121.2 points per 100 possessions. Their defensive rating was 21st at 116.0. That adds up to the seventh-best net rating in the NBA. Denver was 29-13 in mid-January, then had a 13-15 stretch before finishing the season with 12 straight wins.

Jokic is obviously the headliner for the Nuggets. He led the NBA in both rebounds and assists per game this season and will likely finish in the top two in MVP voting for a sixth straight year. Jokic had 56 points, 16 rebounds, and 15 assists in Denver's thrilling overtime win over the Wolves on Christmas evening. Jamal Murray, the Nuggets' No. 2 star, had a career year with 25.4 points per game on 43.5 percent shooting from three.

Aaron Gordon is a key player for the Nuggets. He played in only 36 games this season due to injury, and the Nuggets went 27-9 in those contests. Gordon is healthy heading into this series. Denver's only notable injury is to Peyton Watson, which is significant because he's probably the best defensive player on a team that has struggled on that end of the floor.

The Minnesota Timberwolves file

For the second year in a row, the Wolves went 49-33 and finished as the 6 seed in the West. They're 13th in offensive rating, 8th in defensive rating, and 10th in net rating. They were an up-and-down team all year, but in part due to some injuries, they didn't exactly finish the regular season on a tear like they did last season. The Wolves went 9-10 in their final 19 games.

To some degree, this was a frustrating regular season for Timberwolves fans who were hoping to see their team use their roster continuity to find more consistency. They lost several games they had no business losing. The hope for the playoffs is that the Wolves can flip the switch and bring their A game against top-tier opponents. They did go 4-3 against the Thunder and Spurs, who each won at least 62 games.

Edwards is healthy after missing some time late in the season with a knee injury. For the Wolves to upset the Nuggets, he'll have to elevate his game in the playoffs like he has in previous years. Jaden McDaniels is also healthy and will be a key player on both ends of the floor in this series.

Some X-factors for Minnesota include Julius Randle's efficiency, surviving on offense with Rudy Gobert on the floor, and the spark that Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Hyland can provide off the bench. Dosunmu, in particular, feels like a big reason for hope from a Minnesota perspective in this series. He's been outstanding since coming over from the Bulls at the trade deadline.

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