Why Timberwolves fans should hate this Rob Dillingham trade idea

Anthony Black is an intriguing player, but there's little evidence to suggest that he'd develop into a more important piece on a championship roster than Rob Dillingham.

Feb 21, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Rob Dillingham (4) dunks the ball as Houston Rockets forward Jae'Sean Tate (8) defends during the third quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Trading Rob Dillingham before ever giving him a chance at a regular role would be front office malpractice unless the Timberwolves actually think he won't pan out or if they'd be getting an established guard who could help them compete for a championship in 2025-26.

Neither hypothetical was presented in a trade idea proposed by Bleacher Report. The four-team trade proposal suggests it would be a win for all parties if the Wolves sent Dillingham and a 2031 second-round draft pick to the Atlanta Hawks while receiving Anthony Black from the Orlando Magic. The Utah Jazz would help facilitate the deal as a fourth team. Here are the details of the fake trade:

Timberwolves receive: Anthony Black (via Magic)

Hawks receive: Rob Dillingham (via Wolves), 2031 second-rounder (via Wolves), $4.5 million trade exception (Kobe Bufkin)

Jazz receive: Kobe Bufkin (via Hawks), Bones Hyland (via Timberwolves), $1.1 million (via Magic)

Magic receive: 2026 protected first-rounder (via Hawks), 2028 second-rounder (via Jazz), $8 million trade exception (Anthony Black)

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Before we get into what Black brings to the table, everyone needs to remember that Minnesota traded up to draft Dillingham in 2024. The 20-year-old will likely contribute off the bench this season, and it's possible that his role expands dramatically as Mike Conley enters the fray as the starting point guard in his age-38 season.

Minnesota wants to see Dillingham develop as an efficient three-point shooter since he'll often be playing off the ball while the offense runs through Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle. If he can do that and defend at a respectable level as a 6-foot-2 point guard, then his ability to create with elite speed and ball handling will be a bonus when he's on the floor.

Dillingham has a high ceiling and trading him for a player of Black's caliber seems unwise.

Black was the sixth overall pick in the 2023 draft. Through two seasons, the 21-year-old who starred at Arkansas started 10 games and played in 78 for the Magic while averaging 9.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists last season.

At 6-foot-7 he's an intriguing player with significant upside, but he's shot just 34.3% from three and 43.5% overall in his first two NBA seasons. He averaged 12.8 points and hit 30.1% of his threes in his lone season at Arkansas, so there's not a lot of statistical evidence to suggest that he'll develop into the kind of shooter and scorer the Wolves would need to punt so early on a player of Dillingham's caliber.

Minnesota is in a win-now mode. The only sensible reason for trading Dillingham is if it nets an established, starting-caliber point guard in return. That's why there was so much speculation before free agency and the draft about guards like Coby White, Collin Sexton, De'Aaron Fox and Darius Garland. The Wolves wound up holding firm on the majority of the roster, signaling a decision to run it back in 2025-26 with a team that reached the Western Conference Finals for a second consecutive season.