Why a Giannis Trade Before Deadline Doesn’t Make Sense for Bucks

The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade sweepstakes are about to begin. | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The Giannis Antetokounmpo rumor pot was stirred again on Wednesday thanks to ESPN’s Shams Charania.

After a bad week for the Bucks in which Antetokounmpo suffered another calf strain and Milwaukee lost three of four games, Wednesday brought a report from Charania that Giannis was “ready for a new home.” In addition, Charania reported other teams have “received a sense that the Bucks are more open than ever” to Antetokounmpo trade offers, but Milwaukee is in no rush to get a deal done before the trade deadline on February 5. The believed price point in any Antetokounmpo trade is a “blue chip talent and/or surplus of draft picks,” which is not a surprise.

It’s an exciting news item on an otherwise quiet NBA Wednesday, and the basketball world is buzzing with the potential for a big move ahead of the February 5 deadline. The Bucks’ two-time MVP is likely to be sidelined for at least a month with his latest injury, but his talent is still so overwhelming it won’t stop teams from doing anything possible to land him. Antetokounmpo is a true superstar who would completely alter the championship landscape if moved. And after last year’s deadline saw Luka Dončić swapped for Anthony Davis, the people are eager for another shocking star-studded transaction to hit the news wire.

But Antetokounmpo will almost certainly not be traded by the deadline this year. It doesn’t make sense for the Bucks to do so.

Why the Bucks will wait until the offseason to trade Giannis

Today’s news might feel like the breaking point for the Giannis-Bucks partnership. Rumors have been percolating all season long that the Greek Freak was not pleased with the quality of roster and lack of winning in Milwaukee this season; the Bucks entered Wednesday at 18-27, 12th in what was supposed to be a very weak Eastern Conference. Just yesterday Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix reported many front office executives were wondering if Antetokounmpo had played his last game with the Bucks.

If all signs are pointing to a divorce, why not make it happen as quickly as possible? The Bucks can certainly name their price. Antetokounmpo is sidelined at the moment with a calf strain and has missed 15 games (and counting) this season, which is a concern for a 31-year-old star whose playstyle is so physical it inspires Shaq comparisons. But when on the court, the superstar is effective as ever. Antetokounmpo is averaging 28 points and 10 rebounds per game while playing great defense most nights. He is still a singular force who will fundamentally alter the championship landscape no matter where he ends up.

But if the Bucks are going to move on from Milwaukee’s biggest star in modern sports history, the man who brought the franchise a championship by dropping 50 points in a deciding NBA Finals game... the process can’t be rushed. It’s not just trading a star player. It’s sending away the sun around which the organization has orbited for a decade. Not only are the Bucks’ decision-makers going to want a return appropriate for what they are giving up, they’ll want to be 1000% sure the deal they make is the right one. It is pretty hard to envision GM Jon Horst making that decision under the pressure that comes with a deadline looming just eight days away. Mannix said it best on Tuesday: “Smart money still says the Bucks wait until the offseason to make a decision on Antetokounmpo, when there isn’t a time crunch.”

Beyond that, waiting until the offseason will maximize the Bucks’ return and give them more options. It is already complicated under the current CBA to execute trades of any kind involving a max salary like Antetokounmpo’s. It’s especially complicated for contending teams with big salary numbers, AKA the teams most likely to pursue the Greek superstar. Interested parties are limited in terms of how creative they can get with trade packages with the deadline looming.

Unlike Nico Harrison in Dallas, it seems probable Milwaukee will engage in a good old-fashioned bidding war for Antetokounmpo’s services. Doing so this summer will allow all interested teams to completely focus on putting together the best possible trade package for Antetokounmpo rather than juggling all the aspects of an ongoing NBA season.

Based on the current landscape of suitors, it would behoove Milwaukee to wait out the results of this season, too. The Warriors have long been linked to Antetokounmpo and on Tuesday Sports Illustrated reported Golden State indicated an interest in offering Jonathan Kuminga, the injured Jimmy Butler, and a “cache” of draft picks for Giannis. It’s a solid package, but GM Mike Dunleavy has consistently avoided offering up the most valuable of the Dubs’ picks in anticipation of the inevitable post-Steph Curry decline. How do things change if the Butler injury leads to the Warriors coming up short and the team enters the offseason in desperation mode?

The offseason could even produce more potential trade partners than there appear to be right now. The Thunder and Spurs, for example, aren’t going to make a midseason move for Antetokounmpo despite being able to outbid most other teams because they’re in great position standings-wise right now. But if OKC fails to defend its title, or San Antonio’s young core proves they aren’t ready to compete yet, it’s not hard to see both teams getting into the mix. The Bucks would be thrilled to squeeze the Spurs for Stephon Castle or the Thunder for any of their countless valuable draft picks instead of forcing the issue in the coming days.

There are a lot of ways this situation can play out. But a trade before the deadline just doesn’t seem to be in the cards. The Bucks’ chances of getting a king’s ransom for Antetokounmpo are astronomically higher if they seek to trade him in the offseason, and there’s no reason to rush for a deal right now, barring an absolutely stunning offer.

It would be exciting to see Antetokounmpo land on a team where he can impact this season’s playoff race. But don’t count on it.

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