How Blazers Playoff Chances Increase With No. 8 Seed vs. No. 9

The Portland Trail Blazers are in a fight for the final playoff spots in the Western Conference and will have to go through the play-in tournament in order to clinch.

It is in the Blazers' best interest to get 8th place instead of 9th, which is where they currently are, because it makes things a lot easier for them to qualify.

Why Blazers Need No. 8 Seed

Trail Blazers guard Jrue Holiday looks to drive with the ball during the first half | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The play-in tournament favors teams that are coming into it in either seventh or eighth place, as opposed to ninth or tenth place. In the first round, 7 plays 8 while 9 plays 10. The winner of the 7-8 game will advance to the playoffs as the seventh seed. The loser will get a chance to host the winner of the 9-10 game to secure the number eight seed in the conference.

Therefore, the Blazers would get two chances to earn a playoff spot if they were the eighth seed at the end of the regular season, as opposed to the ninth seed. On top of that, the Blazers would not be able to host the final game of the play-in tournament. If they were the eighth seed, they would have two full chances to get to the playoffs, and they would be awarded home court advantage in the second matchup if they don't win the first.

History also suggests that eighth seeds do better than ninth seeds.

2020: Blazers Beat Grizzlies

Jonas Valanciunas of the Memphis Grizzlies and Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers. | Pool Photo-Imagn Images

In the COVID-19 bubble in the summer of 2020, the Blazers were involved in the first ever play-in tournament. The format was not the same as it is now, but it further suggests that the Blazers would be in a better place if they were the eighth seed. They had to win just one game instead of two from the Memphis Grizzlies in order to move on, and they were able to do that.

If the Blazers were to not get the eighth seed, however, it would not necessarily eliminate them completely. It is entirely possible for ninth seeds to win on the road in the play-in tournament.

2021-22: Nine Seeds Prevail

In the Western Conference playoff picture, eight seeds struggled in their first two years of the full current format. The Golden State Warriors fell to the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies in 2021, while the Los Angeles Clippers lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans, eliminating them from the playoffs before it started.

The same thing happened in the Eastern Conference in 2022 when the Cleveland Cavaliers lost to the Brooklyn Nets and Atlanta Hawks to knock themselves out of the postseason.

2023-25: Eight Seeds Get the Job Done

In the Western Conference, the eighth seed has moved on in each of the last three years. The Minnesota Timberwolves got it done in 2023, while the Los Angeles Lakers became the first eighth seed to beat the seventh seed in the tournament. That allowed them to jump up to the number seven seed. Last year, the Memphis Grizzlies lost to the Warriors but beat the Dallas Mavericks to get to the playoffs.

In the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks were able to upset the Miami Heat to get to seven. The Heat found themselves in the eighth seed the following year but were able to advance as the eighth seed.

The only time the eighth seed has been eliminated in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament was the Hawks last year, when they fell to the Orlando Magic and Heat.