15 Years of No. 11 Picks: What Warriors Can Expect in NBA Draft

The last two times the Golden State Warriors were selecting in the lottery, they had disappointing results.

2020 No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman was a bust, while 2021 No. 7 overall pick Jonathan Kuminga was more of a rotation piece than a quality starter.

Perhaps the Warriors will have better luck witih the 11th pick of the 2026 draft.

I've reviewed the last 15 players taken with the No. 11 pick. If that history is an indication of what's to come, the Warriors have a good chance to get at least a quality starter.

Full List

Year	Player	Team	Career Win Shares
2025	Cedric Coward	Grizzlies	2.5
2024	Matas Buzelis	Bulls	4.4
2023	Jett Howard	Magic	1.4
2022	Ousmane Dieng	Thunder	2.0
2021	James Bouknight	Hornets	-0.3
2020	Devin Vassell	Spurs	16.8
2019	Cam Johnson	Suns	26.6
2018	SGA	Clippers	75.6
2017	Malik Monk	Hornets	16.1
2016	Domantas Sabonis	Thunder	71.0
2015	Myles Turner	Pacers	51.7
2014	Doug McDermott	Bulls	21.7
2013	M. Carter-Williams	76ers	6.6
2012	Meyers Leonard	Trail Blazers	15.8
2011	Klay Thompson	Warriors	57.6

Superstars

Klay Thompson (2011), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2018)

Since Reggie Miller was taken with the 11th pick of the 1987 draft, only SGA and Thompson have reached his heights from the same draft spot.

Thompson is a five-time All-Star and four-time champion who would have more accolades if not for missing two straight years with ACL and Achilles injuries.

Gilgeous-Alexander is arguably the best player in the sport, as his two MVPs and Finals MVP suggest.

Is there something in common with these two players that made them fall? And if so, can the Warriors learn from it so they get a steal in 2026?

They both had great positional size and one skill that was expected to be high end immediately. For Thompson, it was three-point shooting. For SGA, it was his mid-range scoring arsenal, including his ability to get to his spot at will.

Of course there are many paths to becoming a superstar, but among this year's prospects, a player with positional size and a high-end skill who could fall to 11th is Aday Mara (passing/shot-blocking).

All-Star

Domantas Sabonis (2016)

I've put Sabonis in his own tier. He's clearly better than everyone below him as a three-time All-Star, but I'd argue he's a tier below prime Thompson.

Sabonis was a great paint scorer and rebounder in college. What's made him an All-Star-caliber player is the development of his passing.

Quality Starters

Myles Turner (2015), Cam Johnson (2019), Devin Vassell (2020), Matas Buzelis (2024), Cedric Coward (2025)

Turner, Johnson and Vassell have been quality starters for years. They easily make this tier.

Buzelis and Coward are young enough that it's not clear where they will settle in, but I have no choice but to put them here for now. Buzelis just started 77 games and averaged 16.3 points, while Coward started 47 and finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting.

Rotation Pieces

Meyers Leonard (2012), Doug McDermott (2014), Malik Monk (2017), Ousmane Dieng (2022), Jett Howard (2023)

Leonard was more of a low-end rotation piece, but the fact that he shot 39.0 percent from three over 456 games made him clear the bust line pretty easily.

McDermott is still playing after 12 seasons in the league. His career three-point percentage is 41.0.

Monk is the best player in this tier, having finished in top five of Sixth Man of the Year voting twice.

Dieng barely played for the first 3.5 seasons of his career because he was on the Thunder, the deepest team in the NBA. He got traded to the Bucks this season and averaged 11.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 30 games. He has work to do to avoid ending up in the bust tier, but for now it would be unfair to put him there.

Howard had a solid third season in which he shot 37.2 percent from three. If he replicates it in 2026-27, he'll be in this tier comfortably.

Disappointing, but Not a Full-on Bust

Michael Carter-Williams (2013)

Carter-Williams won Rookie of the Year with impressive counting stats (16.7 PPG, 6.3 APG, 6.2 RPG) but horrible efficiency (40.5 FG%, 26.4 3PT%) and consistent turnover issues (3.5 turnovers per game).

Those issues never went away, but it felt wrong calling a player who averaged 10.2 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists over 395 games a bust. So instead he's in a tier of his own, just ahead of the one true bust among No. 11 picks over the last 15 years.

Bust

James Bouknight (2021)

Bouknight played just 2.5 seasons before the Hornets waived him. He's since been playing in the G League.

He's still just 25 years old, so hopefully he makes a riveting NBA comeback that forces me to remove the bust label.

Why Warriors Have Good Chance to Hit on No. 11 Pick

Over the last 15 years, eight No. 11 picks have been in one of the top three tiers (Quality Starter, All-Star, Superstar). That's a 53.3 percent hit rate, which is encouraging.

But that doesn't take into account that this class is one of the strongest in recent memory. So the expected hit rate should be even higher.

Of course there will be busts, but I'd argue that there are about five players expected to be drafted in the Warriors' range who have a good chance to be quality starters.

Mike Dunleavy Jr. hit on his only first-round pick to date (2023 No. 19 pick Brandin Podziemski). If the Warriors keep the pick, they should feel confident that he'll hit again.

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