How Kerr's Decision Could Impact Warriors' Future with Green, Porzingis, Melton, Horford

Steve Kerr and the Golden State Warriors braintrust are expected to meet later this week to decide Kerr's future.

If Kerr is not back as head coach, the Warriors' first order of business will be finding a new HC.

Regardless of who they choose, what could follow is a player exodus.

Let's go over the key players who are potential free agents this offseason and speculate what Kerr leaving could mean for them.

Draymond Green

If Kerr stays: Green's future with the Warriors would be most stable with Kerr returning. His chances of declining his $27.7 million player option and then signing a new two-plus-year deal with a smaller average annual value would increase with Kerr back, as he knows Kerr wants him as a key part of this team moving forward.

If Kerr leaves: Green's future could go in a number of ways with a new coach. That new coach might feel that Green's offensive issues are holding the team back more than his defense is making up for them, and if so, that coach could push the Warriors front office to trade the 14-year veteran. That new coach could also be less open to any sort of extension on Green's contract, even if it would lower the team's 2026-27 salary commitments.

Green might also be less interested in elongating his career if he sees that this new coach is the beginning of a youth movement and the end of the Warriors' title contention of this era. It would be shocking if he declined the player option to become a free agent because he won't make anywhere close to $27.7 million next season, but it's at least possible if he feels that he's not valued by the Warriors anymore.

Kristaps Porzingis

If Kerr stays: Porzingis' chances of returning to the Warriors would go up slightly with Kerr returning. A Kerr return would signal that this team is still competing for titles, which will make any free agent more interested.

If Kerr leaves: With that said, Kerr leaving doesn't guarantee that Porzingis will be a goner. The Warriors have his Bird rights, so they can offer more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $15 million to retain him. It would be surprising if any team offered Porzingis more than that.

A new coach could push the Warriors front office to go in a different direction from Porzingis, but that seems unlikely. It's not like letting Porzingis walk will open up cap space for a big free-agent signing.

De'Anthony Melton

If Kerr stays: Melton will decline his $3.5 million player option to become a free agent. The Warriors will have to use their mid-level exception to retain him. Kerr might push for the Warriors to do that more than another coach would, so in that sense Melton is also slightly more likely to be back with Kerr around.

If Kerr leaves: My guess is Melton's chances of returning are very low if Kerr stays, but essentially zero if Kerr leaves. Melton will get some type of mid-level exception contract offer in free agency, and he has no reason to choose the in-flux-with-a-new-coach Warriors over whatever rising contenders give him similar offers.

Al Horford

If Kerr stays: Surely, part of Horford's reasoning for joining the Warriors was playing for Kerr, so if the four-time champion head coach stays, that increases Horford's chances of staying as well. With that said, I'd put the chances of Horford staying with a Kerr return at lower than 50 percent, as even with Kerr, the Warriors' immediate contention chances aren't particularly good. Why would a 39-year-old want to return to that?

If Kerr leaves: Similar to the Melton's analysis, Kerr leaving would make Horford almost guaranteed to leave. There's no reason for a 19-year veteran to see what a new coach would do for the Warriors when he can join a team with fewer questions and more contention chances.

Horford will likely decline his $6 million player option and get an offer of almost the exact same amount that he got in last year's free agency from Golden State. But even if the Warriors offered him the most this offseason, I doubt money is the biggest driver of his free-agent choice.

Can the Warriors Compete without Kerr?

The summary of this article is that all four players are more likely to return with Kerr back. Without Kerr, the Warriors are more likely to lose Porzingis, Melton and Horford to free agency, and that would signal to other free agents that this is a sinking ship, which will make it difficult to sign bargain-bin FAs like Melton and Horford were for them last offseason.

Team governor Joe Lacob has made it clear he doesn't believe in tanking, and with Stephen Curry on the roster, the Warriors shouldn't be entertaining those thoughts anyway.

But how the Warriors replenish the roster without Kerr is beyond me.

It will take a bold plan with incredible execution from general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. to get this team back into contention next season considering how many players they are projected to lose and the injuries to Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody.

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